‘7억의 선택’ 인도 총선

'지구촌 최대의 선거'로 불리는 인도 총선이 13일 끝났다. 4월 16일부터 한 달 간 치러진 총선에는 7억 명의 유권자 중 4억700만 명이 투표에 참가했다. 각종 출구조사 결과 집권 국민회의당이 주도하는 통일진보연합(UPA)이 제1야당 인도국민당(BJP)이 주축인 전국민주연합(NDA)을 근소한 차이로 이긴 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 여야 모두 과반의석 확보에 실패한데다 예상 의석수 차이도 크지 않아 새 연정구성을 위한 치열한 경쟁이 예상된다. 인도의 정치평론가 라지브 샤르마 씨가 보내 온 인도 총선과 향후 전망에 대한 글을 싣는다.

한 달 간에 걸친 인도 총선이 끝났다. 외부에서 보면 인도 총선에 대한 가장 큰 의문은 선거가 왜 이렇게 오래 걸리느냐는 것일 것이다. 그 이유는 7억 명에 이르는 유권자와 300개가 넘는 정당, 4617명의 후보가 참여하는 어마어마한 규모와 각종 테러에 대한 안전대책 때문이다.

인도는 1989년 이후 20년간 한 번도 단일정당이 집권한 적이 없다. 이번에도 어떤 정당도 과반의석(272석)을 차지하지 못할 것이다. 이미 7차례 경험한 것처럼 이번에도 정당 연합을 통해 새 정부가 구성될 것이다. 현재 인도에는 3개의 주요 정치세력이 있다. 집권 국민회의당이 이끄는 UPA와 제1야당 인도국민당이 주축인 NDA, 인도공산당(CPM) 등 좌파정당 중심인 '제3전선'이다.

TV 출구조사를 보면 국민회의당은 제1당이 될 것으로 보인다. 그러나 BJP와의 차이는 크지 않을 것이다. 2004년에 국민회의당과 BJP의 의석수 차이는 7석에 불과했다. 또 인도 정치의 양대 세력인 UPA와 NDA도 각각 200∼210석을 얻을 것으로 예상된다. 나머지 150석은 다른 정당에게 돌아갈 것이다. 맘모한 싱은 총리에 재선될 가능성이 높다. 국민회의당이 승리하고 맘모한 싱이 총리에 재선된다면 2004년 이후 집권한 정부의 모든 정책의 연속성이 보장될 것이다. 국민회의당이 이끄는 UPA가 집권하면 가난퇴치와 지역개발 정책을 강력히 펴나갈 것이며, BJP가 이끄는 NDA가 승리한다면 기업친화적인 정책을 펼 것이다.

눈여겨 볼 것은 '제3전선'의 행보다. 제3전선은 인도공산당 등 4개의 좌파정당들의 그룹이다. 제3전선은 더 이상 권력의 변두리에 있지 않을 것이라 말한다. 인도공산당은 1996년 차기 총리직 제의를 거절했던 '역사적 실수'를 되풀이 하지 않을 것이다. 그들은 "어떤 특정 지도자나 정당을 추종하지 않으며, 모든 정당과 연관성을 갖고 있다"고 공공연히 말한다. 심지어 '세계은행의 하수인'으로 묘사해 온 국민회의당과도 손을 잡을 수도 있다는 전략을 펴고 있다.

현재 인도 정계는 새 정부출범을 앞두고 요동치고 있다. 124년 전통의 국민회의당의 탐욕스런 행보는 비이성적으로 보일 정도다. 국민회의당은 인도국민당의 최대라이벌인 사마즈와디당과 손을 잡고 있으면서도, 인도국민당에게도 추파를 던진다. 또 '불가촉 천민'의 여왕으로 통하는 마야와티 쿠마리 우타르프라데시 주지사가 이끄는 바후잔 사마디당(BSP)에도 손을 뻗고 있다.

총선 결과는 예상과 전혀 다른 결과가 나올지도 모른다. 543개 선거구 중에서 499개의 선거구가 새롭게 획정돼 기존 인구학적 특성이 완전히 달라져 예측이 어렵기 때문이다. 만일 단일정당으로는 국민회의당이 제1당이 됐지만, 집권연합으로는 제1야당인 인도국민당이 이끄는 NDA가 가장 많이 득표했다? 이 경우 누구에게 차기 정부구성을 맡길 것인지 의견이 크게 엇갈리고 있다. 인도의 대통령은 평소엔 실권이 없지만, 5월16일 선거결과 발표 후 대통령은 새 정부 구성과 관련해 결정적 역할을 행사할 것이다.

INDIAN ELECTION A COMPREHENSIVE PREVIEW

From Rajeev Sharma in New Delhi

India, the largest democracy in the world, completed the five-phase polling process on Wednesday (May 13) a process that started with the first phase forty days ago on April 16. For the uninitiated, the first obvious question is why does India take so long for the polling process that other countries normally finish in a day or two?

The reasons are two: (i) election process in India is a mammoth exercise, unprecedented in terms of size and proportions on the world stage; and (ii) security concerns. Consider the following mind-boggling statstics for understanding the gigantic scale of Indian elections. There are 714 million voters to elect 543 Members of Parliament (MP) for 15th Lok Sabha (House ofthe People or Lower House). The size of electorate has increased from 671 million during the last General Elections in 2004. As many as 4,617 candidates from over 300 parties are in the fray. Hundreds of polling stations are in so far flung regions and inhospitable terrain that elephants and mules had to be used to transport electronic voting machines, other polling wherewithal and personnel. North-eastern states like Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalya and Tripura, Ladakh in Jammu & Kashmir and desert regions of Rajasthan posed huge logistical problems for the Indian authorities.

Elector Photo Identity Cards (EPIC) were issued to 82 % of the electorate. It is for the first time that Photo-Elector rolls were used for the elections. Of the 28 States and seven Union Territories in India, only three states Assam, Nagaland and Jammu & Kashmir did not use Photo Electoral rolls. Besides the parliamentary election, the current poll process would also elect a government in three states Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Sikkim. Out of 543 Parliamentary constituencies, photo electoral rolls were used in 522 parliamentary constituencies as well as in all the Legislative Assembly constituencies in Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Sikkim. Photographs of electors were printed in the electoral rolls to avoid impersonation and facilitate easy identification.

The second reason for such a labyrinthine and gargantuan Indian election process is security concerns. India has been riven with myriads of security problems like jihadi brand of terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir that has engulfed several major Indian cities from time to time and insurgency by separatists in the Northeast. Both of these fires are being fuelled from across the Indian borders. Added to this is the problem of home-grown Naxalite movement that started off on a modest scale four decades ago from West Bengal and has now spread to as many as 16 States. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has gone on record saying that Naxalite movement or Left Wing Extremism is the worst security threat being faced by India today. Naxals are dead opposed to the Indian democracy and they demonstrated their bitter opposition to the Indian dance of democracy by indulging in large-scale violence on the first phase of polling on April 16 when Naxal-infested regions went to polls.

Therefore, the poll process in India poses a tough security challenge to the authorities and large numbers of security personnel have to be deployed in this huge country, seventh largest in the world in terms of area. It was against this backdrop that the Indian General Election 2009 was staggered over five phases as per the following schedule:

ELECTION DATES NO. OF SEATS STATES

April 16 124 Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, J&K, Kerala, Maharashtra, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Orissa, UP, Chhatisgarh, Jharkhand, Andaman, Lakshadweep

April 23 141 Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Goa, J&k Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra,

Manipur, Orissa, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand

April 30 107 Bihar, Gujarat, J&K, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Sikkim, UP, West Bengal, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Daman & Diu

May 7 85 Bihar, Haryana, J&K, Punjab, Rajasthan, UP, West Bengal, Delhi

May 13 86 Himachal Pradesh, J&K, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, UP, West Bengal, Uttarakhand, Chhatisgarh, Puducherry

THE POLITICAL OUTLOOK

Indian General Election 2009 would almost certainly throw up a coalition government, a trend that started two decades ago. The Indian polity today has three established major players (Congress-led UPA, BJP-led NDA and Left-led Third Front), while the fourth is emerging Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) a rapidly growing north India based party, led by Mayawati, Chief Minister of the largest Indian state Uttar Pradesh. The BSP is striving for a distinct identity of its own, would like to be known as the Fourth Front, and has set its eyes for the reins of power in New Delhi.

No party is going to get the required majority of 272 seats on its own. India is in for a coalition government for the seventh successive time. No single party has been able to rule India since 1989 a feat that has been managed by the Congress alone for over four decades. The ruling combine called United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is tipped to do better than its mainrival National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The Congress is likely to repeat its last time's feat and emerge as the single largest party. However, the difference between the Congress and the BJP is not going to be much. In 2004, the Congress had 145 seats and BJP seven lesser. Similarly, the difference between UPA and NDA is also not going to be much.

Each of the two main claimants for ruling India UPA and NDA is likely to get stuck between 200 and 210 seats, which means well over 150 seats would go to others. Unlike the UPA, the NDA, led by Hindu rightist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is a pre-poll alliance and has ruled India for six years before the Congress party upstaged it in 2004 election. At its peak time during the Prime Ministership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the NDA was a large umbrella of 22 parties. Today, NDA has shrunk to just half a dozen parties. But the UPA also is no better.

Exit polls telecast by Indian television channels immediately after the last round of polling on May 13 pointed tothe Congress emerging as the single largest party and best placed to form the government along with its allies. The BJP-led NDA is not too far behind but it is likely to be pipped to the post by the Congress. Manmohan Singh is strongly placed to become Prime Minister again. The fact that Manmohan Singh is best placed to be the PM again is corroborated by the bookies. The punters'odds on Manmohan Singh are 60 paise, while his bitter rival and BJP's PM candidate L K Advani has virtually no chance of becoming PM if the bookies'odds are any indication. The bookies' odds on Advani are a dismal Rs 2.50, which means Manmohan Singh's chances of becoming PM, according to the punters, are 24 times more than Advani's.

Victory of Congress and Manmohan Singh becoming PM again would mean a continuation of all policies of Government of India that are in place since 2004, including India's foreign policy. It would mean a continued strong thrust on poverty alleviation and rural upliftment programmes. On the other hand, a victory by the BJP-led NDA would augur well for the business and industry.

Another political formation in race for power is the Third Front, a rag-tag grouping of regional parties, led by the Left parties. The Left parties themselves are a Front of fourparties, the biggest of which is Communist Party of India (Marxist), while the others are CPI, Forward Bloc and Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP). The Left's traditional pocket boroughs have been three states West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura which send 42, 20 and one MP to the Lok Sabha respectively. Today the red citadels are crumbling. This is a big worry for the Comrades and this has dimmed the hopes of the Third Front for forming government in New Delhi.

The Third Front is no longer on the sidelines and is asserting its political stakes in a big way. This was made clear by CPI General Secretary A B Bardhan who said on May 13 that after the results are out on May 16, the Third Front would get "more numbers" and "will tell the President that we mustbe given a chance". He said he expected substantial number of seats in the Lok Sabha polls and would not play second fiddle to the Congress in government formation. After meeting CPIM top gun Prakash Karat, Bardhan told reporters that the Third Front was "totally intact" and the TRS joining the NDA would have no impact, even in Andhra Pradesh.

The Left appears to be game for the idea of sharing the fruits of power this time around. Assuming that the BJP-led coalition will face a crushing defeat and the Congress will not be able to garner the support of its erstwhile UPA allies, the CPM leadership is trying to convince its own cadres about joining the next government at the Centre, even if it means joining hands with parties like the Congress which it had even described as "agents of the World Bank".

This time the CPIM is sure of not committing another "historical blunder"like it did in 1996 when Jyoti Basu was offered the post of prime ministership. But citing the then article 112 of the party programme which stated that the CPI(M) would not join a government where it would not be able to determine its policies the issue was vetoed by majority of the central committee members. The CPM central committee after a fierce debate voted over the issue and the motion was defeated by only eight votes. Basu later described the party's decision as a "historical blunder"leading to a debate within the rank and file of the Stalinist party.

This was reinforced by West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya earlier this week who said Left parties are willing to join an alternative government at the centre if they are given a meaningful role in the government; also adding the Left parties could well be in a position to dictate terms after the results. "We are mentally in contact with all parties. One must understand our position. We are not running after any particular leader and a particular party,"said senior leader of Communist Party of India (Marxist). Bhattacharya said CPM is trying to formulate a policy for alternative government at the Centre and it is too early to say who will support whom. "We are trying to formulate a policy for alternative government at the Centre. This is our basic objective. We have to form a government at the Centre and we are busy formulating the policies of the government."

All three major political formations UPA, NDA and Third Front have dribbled towards the goalpost with a two-pronged strategy: maintaining their internal unity and eyeing all possible territories to poachpost May 16, the date of counting of votes when all results are expected to be announced. All relevant players appear to have buried their hatchets for now and fixed their sights on May 16 when it would be known which political group reaches the magic figure of 272 seats in Lok Sabha.

The fact is today the Indian politics has become a revolving door. Political churning has already started taking place. A sneak peek of the future political alignments and realignments was seen as three regional satraps Sharad Pawar, Laloo Prasad Yadav and Ramvilas Paswan skipped Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's last cabinet meeting on May 8. The Congress is running with the hare and hunting with the hound. A "long" telephonic call made earlier this week by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Indian politics' hottest leader Nitish Kumar amplified this.Kumar, who is President of regional party JD (U) and the Chief Minister of Bihar, which sends 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha, is expected to do very well in the election. Kumar is at daggers drawn with UPA allies Laloo Prasad Yadav and Ramvilas Paswan.

The 124-year-old party's hunger for scouting for more allies is insatiable and seemingly irrational too. The Congress is trying to preserve a snowball in an oven by seeking to reconcile the irreconcilable. Congress is also flirting with Mayawati's BSP while keeping Samajwadi Party, BSP's arch-rival, in good humour. Congress is also tying up with Trinamool Congress and hoping for the Left support post May 16, holding joint rallies with DMK while keeping an amorous eye on AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa. Trinamool Congress cannot see eye to eye with the Left, while the DMK and AIADMK, two major parties in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, are inimical to each other. Congress realizes that Tamil Nadu, with 39 Lok Sabha seats, is a swing state and a game changer.

The Congress is also working on the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), upsetting the Samajwadi party which had bailed out the Manmohan Singh government at its most crucial test last July when the Left had withdrawn support over Indo-US nuclear deal.SP General Secretary Amar Singh's outburst againstthe Congress on May 11 should be seen against this backdrop. Amar Singh accused Congress of using UP Governor T V Rajeshwar for hobnobbing with BSP and made it clear that its support will not come easy this time. He indicated readiness to go with Left parties if BSP is not with them. "I have been saying since beginning that Congress is in touch with BSP through Governor Rajeshwar. This is called track-II politics," Amar Singh said. The Congress camp has already reopened its channels with Mayawati. However, Mayawati is keeping her cards close to her chest and waiting for the best bargain from her two suitors Congress and BJP.

THE X FACTOR

It should not be a surprise if the final results of the Indian elections are a shocker for everyone. The reason is that this is first Parliamentary election since 1952 which is being held after a massive Delimitation exercise. Of the total of 543 constituencies, 499 have been newly delimited. The word "Delimitation"literally means the act or process of fixing limits orboundaries of territorial constituencies in a country or province having a legislative body. The main purpose of undertaking the delimitation exercise was to rationalize the structure and composition of the electoral constituencies, on the principle of "One vote and one value".

After the delimitation, the character, composition and demographic profile of 499 out of a total of 543 Parliamentary constituencies has been changed completely nobody knows which constituency will vote how. This is the biggest X factor of Indian General Election 2009.

In case of a hung Parliament, as is expected, the role of President of India will be most crucial. Whom should President Pratibha Patil invite to form the government if the Congress emerges as the single largest party but the NDA is the single-largest pre-poll alliance on May 16? Constitution experts, contacted by me, appeared divided on this million dollar question. Two former Union Law Ministers and prominent legal eagles, Ram Jethmalani and Shanti Bhushan, differed sharply on this question, while former Lok Sabha Secretary General Subhash Kashyap said the principle of single largest party getting the nod from the President was 'equally relevant"even in this coalition era.

Jethmalani said the issue of single largest party versus largest pre-poll alliance was "a grey area" and ultimately it would be a question of numbers. "A pre-poll alliance has a greater validity. In my view, a pre-poll alliance should be better placed in the situation you are narrating," Jethmalani said. Shanti Bhushan opined that it was purely the discretion of the President whom she invites for forming the government, depending on the fact which coalition is in a position to form a stable government.

Subhash Kashyap gave preference to single largest party followed by pre-poll alliance, but was not in favour of giving preference to post-poll alliance as it would be an opportunistic move. He made a significant political point which can be relevant just a few days from now. He said if the 15th Lok Sabha mandate is absolutely fractured and nebulous and none of the three major political formations UPA, NDA and Third Front were able to form a stable government, President of India should ask the Lok Sabha to elect the Prime Minister. In this context, he said he referred to the Supreme Court verdict for asking UP assembly to elect Chief Minister of the state by way of a composite vote.

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전승훈기자 raphy@donga.com