Calculated Promotions and Ruling Party’s Presidential Candidate Pool

Fastening Moves of “Secondary Submerged Dragons”—

Out of the three, Minister Chun has been preparing most actively to challenge for the presidency. Since the summer of 2003, he has set up a private office near the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul, and has been recruiting staff members.

Minister Chun’s actions also became an issue last year, when at a meeting with reporters, it was discovered that the magazine of Mokpo High School, where Minister Chun graduated, was titled “Submerged Dragon.”

He plans to return to his party sometime around the May regional elections. Considering the preparation period to enter the presidential race, it is estimated that he should return around that timetable.

Lawmaker Chung Sye-kyun, who was appointed as the minister of commerce, industry and energy during the latest cabinet reshuffle, has shown the most caution as his political style. After being elected as party chairman in October of last year, he openly said, even though no one had asked, that “I have no personal interest.”

Nevertheless, by running in the primary elections selecting a candidate for the governor of Jeonnam Province in June 2002, Chung had already been looking to become former President Kim Dae-jung’s successor. He was aiming at becoming governor, showing results, and after the retirement of President Kim, fill his vacuum as the symbolic politician of Honam region and run for president two terms later.

His plans were set back when he lost in the primaries, but after becoming Uri Party’s floor leader in January of last year, his dreams are back on track.

A party official reportedly said, “Although it is not well known, even before becoming floor leader, Chung had already set up a private office with a separate staff in Yeouido, and prepared a mid and long-term strategy.”

Lawmaker Rhyu Si-min’s ambitions toward the presidency are relatively recent. Regardless of his personal will, when President Roh was impeached in early 2004, President Roh and his close inner circle discussed about Rhyu, who is from the Youngnam region, to run for office.

Maybe keeping in mind such intentions, during the 2004 general elections, Rhyu is known to have said to his close associates, “The Uri Party will definitely break apart. I will run for the presidency after the next presidential election.”

Joining the Cabinet Definitely Helps—

President Roh, in superb timing, used well his power and made them members of his cabinet at a time when they were facing political difficulties, and he is promoting their images.

Minister Chun, who took responsibility for the Uri Party’s failure to legislate four bills, including the revision of national security law in late 2004, and stepped down as floor leader, was appointed as minister of justice in June of last year, just six months after his resignation, and hence was able to hold to his political ground.

Rhyu had become a loner inside his own party after the October 26 re-elections but was able to revive his political life by becoming a member of the cabinet. Insiders and outsiders of the party even say, “Disapproval toward Rhyu was so strong within the party that if he had stayed, he would probably have become powerless like a human vegetable.”

Rhyu might have shared the same opinion that joining the cabinet was his only solution, and when he was discussed as a possible candidate cabinet member starting in November of last year, he behaved cautiously.

President Roh fully accepted Chung’s wishes that if he resigned as the party chairman and floor leader, he would want to enter the cabinet. A close associate of Chung said, “He doesn’t dislike being pointed out as one of the future presidential candidates. He himself will probably make his political decision according to the party situation after regional elections, don’t you think?”

Cheong Wa Dae, “The Paradigm Has Shifted” –

Cheong Wa Dae officials are saying, “The management of potential presidential candidates has changed from the past paradigm in which the president would pick his favorite loyal candidate.” The reason for such shift is that the support of people toward candidates is the key to success.

That is why President Roh, who has declared neutrality, has opened the doors to intervene in the affairs of potential candidates. With his innate authority, he can select cabinet members and hence promote certain candidates.

The issue of managing potential candidates is not irrelevant, and President Roh does not want to relinquish the initiative in future national affairs management. The separation of the Uri Party and other possible modification in the political map might have a decisive influence in reshuffling potential candidates.

In order to maintain President Roh’s political driving force, the first task to be solved is to stop the lame-ducking in the latter part of his presidential term. That is why some point out that he might be trying to wage a competition of loyalty by keeping a diverse pool of candidates.