Power struggles before June 3 local elections

“Do they not say that in golf and in elections, you lose the moment you lift your head?”

That was the warning President Lee Jae-myung delivered on May 16 last year, when he was a presidential candidate urging vigilance amid talk that he was the overwhelming front-runner. Because the election followed the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk Yeol, some within the Democratic Party of Korea openly suggested that victory was inevitable and that only the margin remained in doubt. Lee emphasized that the party must remain humble to the end. The remark, widely attributed to Rep. Park Jie-won, has since been repeatedly invoked during election seasons as a caution against overconfidence.

Yet with about three months remaining before the June 3 local elections, the first nationwide electoral test of the Lee administration, the Democratic Party shows little sign of restraint. Within the party, victory is broadly treated as a foregone conclusion, and attention has shifted to the size of the expected win. Optimism is already spreading that the party could surpass its performance in the 2018 local elections, when it won 14 of the country’s 17 metropolitan and provincial governments, losing only in Daegu, North Gyeongsang Province and Jeju. Even Park, who is said to have coined the “golf and elections” adage, declared on Feb. 23, “We will take Daegu as well,” expressing confidence in a sweeping victory.

As a result, the party’s focus is moving beyond the June local elections to its national convention in August. The new leader, to be elected to a two-year term, will oversee nominations for the 2028 general elections, scheduled for the midpoint of Lee’s presidency, and could emerge as a leading contender in the 2030 presidential race. Party leader Chung Cheong-rae is widely expected to seek reelection after completing the remaining one year of Lee’s previous term as party chief. At the same time, speculation is growing over other potential challengers, including Prime Minister Kim Min-seok and former party leader Song Young-gil, who rejoined the party on Feb. 27. There is also talk that Cho Kuk, leader of the Rebuilding Korea Party, could enter the race in the event of a merger.

A telling example of the current atmosphere is the lawmakers’ group formed to press for the cancellation of indictments against President Lee Jae-myung and to pursue a parliamentary investigation. Led by pro-Lee lawmakers critical of Chung Cheong-rae, the group at one point attracted 105 of the party’s 162 sitting lawmakers, or 65 percent. Although participants insist it is not a faction, it is widely seen as an effort by some lawmakers to consolidate backing for specific contenders ahead of the August convention. In response, Chung established a separate official party body to address the issue of indictment cancellations, but the lawmakers’ group has opted not to disband. Critics say that decision fuels suspicions that it serves broader political aims.

As lawmakers shift their focus to August and engage in an early contest for influence, party supporters are also growing more divided. Friction has intensified between newer backers drawn to the party by Lee, often referred to as “New Lee Jae-myung,” and established mainstream factions aligned with former Presidents Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in. Pro-government YouTubers have amplified the discord. Lee once personally served as administrator of his fan cafe, “Jaemyung’s Village,” which recently expelled Chung Cheong-rae and Supreme Council member Lee Sung-yoon from its membership. On the online platform Ddanzi Ilbo, which Chung has described as a barometer of public opinion, critics have mocked the so-called New Lee Jae-myung supporters as “New Watermelons,” a disparaging term implying duplicity.

The ruling Democratic Party of Korea risks becoming consumed by internal power calculations even as the first nationwide election that will shape the administration’s governing momentum draws near. That confidence may stem from Lee’s approval rating, which exceeds 60 percent, and the disarray of the main opposition People Power Party, which has struggled to mount a credible challenge. Yet in what is often described as "dynamic Korea," no one can foresee what unexpected developments may emerge in the three months remaining before the local elections. As Lee himself cautioned, in golf and in elections, you lose the moment you lift your head.