AI boom drives memory chip prices, boosts earnings

As the artificial intelligence (AI) industry expands, rising memory chip prices have fueled expectations that Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and other companies will post strong earnings. Analysts say that once next-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM), specifically HBM4, begins full-scale sales next year, the semiconductor market could enter a so-called “super cycle” that sustains growth for two to three years.

According to market research firm TrendForce on Sept. 24, the average spot price of standard DRAM products (DDR4 8GB) reached $5.87 last month, marking a yearly high. Earlier this year, DRAM prices had stayed just above $1, but last month they surpassed $5.70 and have recently neared $6.

The semiconductor industry attributes the sharp rise in DRAM demand to the AI boom and the return of the server market replacement cycle, while noting supply constraints have led to a DRAM shortage. NAND flash prices are also climbing as demand for AI infrastructure grows.

Memory chip makers are responding with price hikes. U.S. companies Micron and SanDisk have announced plans to raise DRAM and NAND flash prices. According to foreign media reports, Samsung Electronics recently informed its clients that it would increase DRAM prices by up to 30% and NAND flash prices by up to 10% for the fourth quarter this year.

Rising memory prices have strengthened expectations for semiconductor earnings growth. Micron, often considered a bellwether for the industry, reported on Sept. 23 that its third-quarter revenue rose 46% year-on-year to $11.32 billion, nearly $200 million above market forecasts of $11.15 billion. Operating profit jumped 126.6% to $3.955 billion during the same period.

Domestic semiconductor companies, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, are also expected to post “surprise” third-quarter earnings, with financial information provider FnGuide projecting Samsung’s operating profit at 9.6687 trillion won (about $7.4 billion) and SK Hynix’s at 10.7175 trillion won (about $8.2 billion). Analysts predict that earnings could accelerate next year once HBM sales begin in earnest. Samsung and SK hynix have reportedly completed HBM4 development and established mass production systems. “Strong AI semiconductor demand has become a long-term trend, and we expect domestic semiconductor companies such as Samsung and SK hynix to see significant earnings growth during the AI-driven super boom,” said Kim Yang-pyeong, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade.

However, current semiconductor demand is heavily concentrated in AI, and the broader information technology (IT) sector, including PCs and smartphones, has not yet fully recovered. Some analysts caution that it is too early to declare a full-scale super cycle. High tariffs imposed under former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration could further depress PC and smartphone markets by raising prices, reducing consumer demand, and increasing inventory, creating a negative feedback loop.

Last month, Gartner forecast that PC purchases would slow this year due to tariffs and market uncertainty, while Counterpoint Research projected that global smartphone production would decline by 1% amid tariffs and a broader industry slowdown. “The outlook for AI semiconductors is positive, but geopolitical uncertainties, including U.S.-China tensions, make it too early to be overly optimistic,” a semiconductor industry official said.


이동훈 기자 dhlee@donga.com