Lee leads three-way race with nearly 50% support

Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate for the Democratic Party, holds a commanding lead in a hypothetical three-way race against Kim Moon-soo or former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo from the People Power Party and Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party, garnering close to 50 percent support. In head-to-head matchups, Lee also surpasses 50 percent support against all opponents.

According to a survey commissioned by the Dong-A Ilbo and conducted by Research & Research on May 4 and 5, Lee received 49.7 percent support in a three-way contest against Kim Moon-soo (29.1 percent) and Lee Jun-seok (7.4 percent). In a separate scenario with Han Duck-soo (30.8 percent) and Lee Jun-seok (6.1 percent), Lee polled at 49.8 percent. Even if Kim and Han were to unify their candidacies, Lee still maintained a wide lead of 20.6 and 19.0 percentage points, respectively.

In hypothetical two-way races that assume full consolidation among conservative candidates, Lee continued to hold a majority. He led Kim Moon-soo by 18.8 points, with 52.7 percent support to Kim’s 33.9 percent. Against Han Duck-soo, Lee had 52.1 percent versus 36.0 percent, a margin of 16.1 points. In a two-way race against Lee Jun-seok, Lee received 51.6 percent support, outpacing him by 30.3 points.

As internal conflicts intensify within the People Power Party over which candidate should lead a unified front, the poll also asked which candidate, Kim or Han, is more suitable for unification. Responses were closely split: 25.9 percent favored Kim, while 27.6 percent supported Han, a difference within the margin of error.

When asked which factor would most influence the election outcome, 51.0 percent cited the Supreme Court’s pending ruling on Lee Jae-myung. This was followed by investigations into former President Yoon Suk-yeol (22.0 percent), trade negotiations with the United States (9.2 percent), and conservative bloc unification (7.1 percent). Public opinion was nearly divided on whether Lee should run if convicted in the retrial: 49.8 percent said he should still run, while 48.1 percent said he should not.

Ji-Hyun Kim jhk85@donga.com