February 13 Agreement a “Step in the Right Direction, but Full of Uncertainties”

The February 13 agreement reached in Beijing is a small step in the right direction. For the past five years, the Bush administration has done nothing tangible and has even failed to set a proper direction it would take.

There are three options in dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue. First, the Bush administration hinted it was considering possible military action against Pyongyang and a regime change. But that was nothing more than a fake option.

Second, it is too much to expect economic sanctions against North Korea to produce results that the U.S. wanted. The sanctions would not work if China and South Korea decide that the collapse of the North Korean regime is not in their national interest. The Bush administration used strong rhetoric but failed to explore effective policies.

The third option is negotiation. A combination of factors--domestic politics, election losses, the quagmire in Iraq, and Iran’s nuclear issue--must have affected the U.S. decision to accept North Korea’s demand to normalize its relations with Pyongyang. Given the nature of the communist regime, it must have been difficult for Washington to make such a decision.

However, a close look at the February 13 agreement proves that it is full of uncertainties. The deal is vague on what disablement means. It doesn’t tell how to handle the existing 55kg of weapon-grade plutonium and doesn’t mention what happened to the centrifuge Pyongyang was said to have purchased from Pakistan to develop a nuclear weapon. The accord doesn’t say how to ensure that Pyongyang’s nuclear materials are not transferred outside its borders, either.

The long-term prospects for alliance between Seoul and Washington are rosy, but I’m concerned about the short-term prospects, and a little concerned in the mid-term.

The future of the South Korea-U.S. alliance is closely linked to the future of China. China could grow in a responsible manner and emerge as a leading power in the region. In either case, the U.S. needs a strong ally in East Asia. This leads us to expect Seoul and Washington to maintain its strong alliance despite the North Korean nuclear issue and anti-American sentiment among South Korea’s youth.

srkim@donga.com