Mending North Korea’s Relationship with the Outside World

Some believe that the Yongcheon blast will improve relations between Washington and Pyongyang, as well as strengthening associations between South and North Korea. In contrast, negative forecasts hold that it is impossible for fundamental change in relation to the outside world unless North Korea changes its stance on nuclear issues.

▽The U.S. Response

America is likely to exploit Yongcheon’s explosion as a means of promoting the Republican Party’s agenda. U.S. State Secretary Collin Powell said that there was no sign of terror and America would help North Korea if requested.

While the U.S. has been pressuring North Korea to dismantle its nuclear program holding that it separates the North Korean regime and North Korean people, through the World Food Program (WFP), the Bush administration has increased food aid for North Korea from that of the Clinton administration.

“Under such circumstances, the Bush administration can raise awareness of the reality of life in North Korea before the November re-election. He can boast of the moral legitimacy of Republican strategies,” Kim Seong-han, professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, analyzed.

Korea University professor Nam Seong-wook predicted that there would be more frequent contact between the U.S. and North Korea. “America will contact North Korea thorough Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) and North Korea will not reject this, as long as it is believed that the U.S. is not using this for political purpose,” he said.

▽The Response from our Political Community

The Blue House and the Open Uri Party view Yongcheon’s disaster as a crucial turning point for restoring the inter-Korean hotline. “This event is a breakthrough which will get the inter-Korea relationship out of a stalemate beginning at a time when Mr.Roh’s Participatory Government has allowed independent counsel over North Korean slush fund scandal, ” a senior member of the ruling party said.

The Grand National Party actively promotes humanitarian assistance to North Korea. It seems to want to use this event to change its own stance on North Korea, from its current hard-line position to a more flexible one, by stressing strong security policy and generous humanitarian assistance.

Still, the Foreign Ministry Authorities have stated that economic support to the North will remain limited unless North Korea renounces its nuclear program.

▽Pyongyang’s Intention

Some government officials believe that this event will deal a big blow to the North Korean government, leaving it with too much work to be done in too little time.

They said that it could eclipse North Korean Leader Kim Jong-il’s successful visit to China and undermine its economy across the board due to the severe damage of railroads from Sinuiju to Yongcheon, which are vital to trade between China and North Korea.

To control this event, the North Korean government is utilizing a dual strategy which provides brief reporting on this event to the domestic media, while emphasizing the number of casualties to the foreign media. North Korea’s government apparently wants to gain as much outside economic support as possible while maintaining public unity.

Seung-Ryun Kim srkim@donga.com zsh75@donga.com