Korean population expected to plunge to 36 million in 2072

As Korea's total population experiences a significant decline, current estimates suggest that it will plummet to 36 million in the next 50 years. Concurrently, the nation grapples with a rapid aging demographic, exacerbated by a persistent low fertility trend. Projections indicate that individuals aged 65 or older will approach nearly half of the population in five decades.

According to the 'Future Population Estimates for 2022-2072' released by Statistics Korea on Thursday, Korea's total population, which was estimated at 51.67 million last year, is anticipated to decrease to 47.11 million in 2050 and further decline to 36.22 million in 2072. The total population in this survey encompasses Koreans and foreigners residing in Korea for more than three months.

The total fertility rate, representing the average number of children a woman is expected to give birth to in her lifetime, declined from 0.78 last year to 0.65 in 2025. It gradually increased but is projected to reach only 1.08 in 2072. Consequently, the country's population structure is rapidly aging, with the proportion of individuals aged 65 or older anticipated to rise from 17.4% last year to 25.3% in 2030, 40.1% in 2050, and 47.7% in 2072. The analysis considered scenarios involving high, low, and medium levels of the population's birth, death, and international movement, with predictions based on the intermediate level. In the pessimistic scenario, characterized by a low-level estimate, the total population is expected to decrease further to 30.17 million in 2072.


Do-Hyong Kim dodo@donga.com