North Korea warns of stronger armed forces on border

North Korea said it would never be bound by the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement and that it would withdraw the military step, taken to prevent military tension and conflict in all spheres including ground, sea, and air, and deploy more powerful armed forces and new-type military hardware in the region along the military demarcation line. This was a counterattack to South Korea’s suspension of a no-fly zone on the border with North Korea in response to North Korea’s spy satellite launch. South Korea’s Defense Minister Shin Won-sik pledged that North Korea’s provocations will be immediately met with strong retaliation.

Given its aggressive attitude, North Korea’s complete scrapping of the September 19 military agreement is expected. North Korea promised forward deployment of armed forces and military equipment near the military demarcation line, but it is likely that North Korea will go further by firing artillery rounds near the border, conducting field maneuvers, restoring guard posts near the border, infiltrating the sky with unmanned aerial vehicles, and carrying out provocations both at and under the sea. North Korea blamed South Korea for the scrapping of the military deal, adding that Seoul would be held wholly accountable in case an irretrievable clash broke out between the two Koreas.

The arrogance displayed by North Korea can be traced back to its reliance on the concept of the “nuclear shadow” effect, expecting that the South Korean military would be intimidated by any form of provocation, given North Korea’s possession of nuclear and missile capabilities, thus rendering an effective response unlikely. However, the actual impact of such threats may not be as potent as North Korea assumes. The KORUS alliance’s nuclear deterrence is operational, and South Korea surpasses North Korea in conventional military strength, making any provocative actions by the latter highly unwise. It is imperative for the Korean military to exhibit a resolute and decisive stance in the face of potential threats. However, this response should be carefully balanced to prevent unintentional clashes from escalating into a full-blown conflict, given the persistent military tension between the two Koreas.

The recent abandonment of the September 19 military agreement is a result of North Korea’s indiscriminate provocations. Despite the military’s assertion that the agreement was prejudicial to South Korea, it cannot be denied that the pact served as a minimal safety valve, preventing direct confrontations between the two Koreas. In the current situation, where even the promise to ease tension and avert clashes has been forsaken, the South Korean military must assert its strength to establish sustainable peace. Now is the opportune moment for the South Korean military to showcase unwavering strength, ensuring that even the slightest threat is swiftly nullified.