Democratic candidates hold lead in Seoul, Busan polls

Front-runners from the Democratic Party of Korea are maintaining leads over People Power Party candidates in the Seoul and Busan mayoral races that could determine the outcome of the June 3 local elections. In Seoul, former Seongdong District Mayor Jung Won-oh and lawmaker Park Ju-min are ahead of incumbent Mayor Oh Se-hoon. In Busan, Democratic lawmaker Jeon Jae-su is leading Mayor Park Hyung-joon and lawmaker Joo Jin-woo, with margins outside the survey’s 3.5-point error range.

A Dong-A Ilbo poll released April 1 found Jung at 42.6 percent, 14.6 points ahead of Oh’s 28 percent. Park held 39.6 percent versus Oh’s 28.2 percent, giving her an 11.4-point lead. In a January 1 survey, Jung (30.4%) and Oh (30.9%) and Park (31.5%) and Oh (30.2%) were in tight contests, showing that Democratic support has grown to double digits over three months. Only lawmaker Jeon Hyun-hee faces a close race against Oh, with 32.8 percent to 32 percent. When former lawmakers Yoon Hee-suk or Park Su-min are hypothetically matched against the three Democratic frontrunners one-on-one, their support ranges from 10.8 to 15.8 percent, keeping all Democratic candidates clearly ahead.

In Busan, Jeon leads three-term Mayor Park by 16.6 points, 43.7 percent to 27.1 percent. In a face-off against lawmaker Joo, she maintains a 19.8-point advantage, 45.3 percent to 25.5 percent. Jeon also outperforms both rivals across all four city districts.

On the broader question of the local elections’ significance, more respondents in Seoul and Busan favor a ruling party win to maintain “government stability” (Seoul 47.2%, Busan 42.1%) than an opposition victory to “check the government” (Seoul 29.3%, Busan 33.3%). However, more than half of voters who intend to cast ballots have yet to decide on a candidate, 65.8 percent in Seoul and 59.6 percent in Busan, leaving the final outcome likely to depend on party campaigns over the remaining 63 days.


Dong-Joo Cho djc@donga.com