A fractured global order emerges in 2026

The year 2026 has begun amid gunfire and upheaval. From the opening days of the new year, global order has been tested by escalating violence and uncertainty. The U.S.-led effort to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro may be only the first signal of a broader shift. Military force, however, has clear limits. While external intervention can alter a country’s political trajectory, it rarely succeeds in reshaping society in a durable or effective way.

Should Iran’s Khamenei regime collapse, the shockwaves would likely reverberate across the Middle East. Long-suppressed local conflicts, held in check by shared pan-Islamic and anti-Israel sentiment, could erupt simultaneously. Syria has already descended into civil war, and political change in Iran would almost certainly spill over into Iraq. As traditional states struggle with instability, oil-based emerging powers such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar would be positioned to expand their influence. That shift could accelerate military buildups and raise the risk of wider conflicts, including wars resembling Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen.

Cooperation among Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt is likely to become more overt. Although the Palestinian issue remains a major constraint, space appears to exist for new initiatives. The war in Ukraine has entered another year, and even if active fighting ends, a power contest between Russia and Europe would begin as soon as European forces are deployed. Whether Europe awakens and succeeds in rearmament and national restructuring, or instead fractures and weakens as Russian President Vladimir Putin anticipates, will not be resolved quickly. Yet the test will begin this year.

The global struggle for dominance between the United States and China is expanding into Asia and South America. Pressure on Taiwan is expected to persist throughout the year. Tensions between China and Japan are likely to sharpen, while North Korea will intensify efforts to expand its military capabilities. Northeast Asia remains highly volatile, with risks accumulating rather than receding. At the same time, domestic divisions in many countries, including our own, are deepening toward an extreme. Seen in this light, the world in 2026 appears to be splitting into two categories: states with hardened governing capacity and those approaching internal fracture.