Pyongyang presses drone claim as Seoul urges restraint

North Korea said on Jan. 11, through a statement by Kim Yo Jong, vice department director of the ruling Workers' Party, that “what is clear is the fact that a drone originating from South Korea violated our airspace,” adding that “even if it was the act of a civilian group or an individual, the South Korean authorities cannot evade responsibility for this grave provocation that infringed on our sovereignty.” The remarks came after South Korea’s Defense Ministry said the previous day, in response to North Korea’s claim of a “South Korean drone intrusion,” that the South Korean military does not possess such a drone and would investigate the possibility that it was operated by a civilian. Kim said she was “taking note of that announcement.”

As usual, Kim’s statement was filled with coarse language and ridicule, and this time it carried a tone of confidence. After North Korea’s General Staff claimed the previous day that a South Korean drone had carried out a “provocation infringing on sovereignty,” South Korea’s Defense Ministry promptly denied the allegation, the presidential office convened a working-level National Security Council meeting, and President Lee Jae-myung ordered the formation of a joint military-police investigation team to conduct a swift and rigorous probe. Against this backdrop, Kim’s confidence was not surprising. She also mocked the Defense Ministry’s statement that South Korea had no intention of provoking or antagonizing North Korea, calling it “at least a wise choice for survival.”

The government’s response stands in sharp contrast to its approach in October two years ago, when North Korea made a similar claim that South Korean drones had entered Pyongyang airspace. Of course, the South Korean government could not adopt the hard-line rhetoric about the “end of the North Korean regime” used 15 months ago, when tensions were heightened by anti-North leafleting and North Korea’s trash balloon launches. The earlier Pyongyang drone operation, later revealed to have been conducted by South Korea’s military, has been referred to the judiciary on charges of aiding the enemy. To prevent the latest drone intrusion claim from triggering a military confrontation between the two Koreas, the government must conduct a thorough investigation. If the incident is confirmed to have involved a civilian drone from the South, discussions are also needed on safeguards to prevent a recurrence, given the risk of unnecessarily inflaming inter-Korean tensions.

That said, North Korea appears to have already known that the drone in question was civilian. Unlike in the past, when it flatly asserted that “the main culprit is the South Korean military,” it this time referred only to a “provocation by South Korean elements.” This appears to be a domestically focused propaganda offensive aimed at reinforcing the “hostile relations between two states” line ahead of the upcoming ninth Workers Party's Congress.

The South Korean government’s seemingly startled and sensitive response immediately drew criticism from the opposition, which accused it of automatically lowering its posture toward Pyongyang. It is not difficult to understand the government’s efforts to create even a narrow opening in inter-Korean relations. Still, history offers ample lessons that an excessively low posture does not draw North Korea into dialogue, but instead risks allowing Seoul to be pulled along at Pyongyang’s pace.