Korea urged to rethink population policy amid rapid decline

Leipzig, once the second-largest city in East Germany, had a population of about 530,000 just before German reunification. By 1998, however, that number had dropped to roughly 430,000. The city’s industrial base collapsed rapidly, prompting a mass departure of residents. At its peak, as many as 60,000 homes stood vacant.

In response, the German government launched the Urban Restructuring East program. The initiative concentrated investment on historic city centers that were highly valued and favored as residential areas, with the aim of preserving urban appeal. In contrast, large apartment complexes built on the outskirts during the communist era were demolished and replaced with green spaces, including parks.

South Korea entered what is known as a population dead cross in 2020, when the number of deaths exceeded the number of births. By the end of last year, the country had become a super-aged society. Projections show that by 2070, South Korea will face an inverted population pyramid, with the elderly population outnumbering those of working age.

A population crisis weakens future growth potential, erodes national capacity and increases the burden of social support. Joel Mokyr, a professor at Northwestern University in the United States and this year’s Nobel laureate in economics, has said that “there is no reason South Korea cannot continue to succeed as it has, except for the population crisis.”

Other countries have already experienced what is known as a shrinking society. In such societies, population decline is no longer treated as a problem to be overcome but as a new normal that requires a redesign of social systems. Japan, which entered a super-aged society earlier than South Korea, has significantly revised its national strategy in response.

After concluding that past policies aimed at balanced development between urban and rural areas had failed, Japan introduced the concept of a related population. Under this approach, people who maintain ties to a region through hometown tax donations, remote work or weekend visits are recognized and supported as a new form of population. Rather than attempting to sustain every village or region, Japan has pursued policies that concentrate and connect administrative, welfare and commercial functions within a single hub.

By contrast, South Korea remains locked into an approach focused on preserving population figures above a certain threshold. Efforts to maintain population levels result in increased government transfers and limit reductions in civil service positions. As a result, population policies continue to lack substance and clear direction. The time has come to actively embrace the concept of a shrinking society. Instead of prioritizing quantitative expansion, the system must be reorganized around qualitative development that makes the most of limited resources.

At the center of population policy lies the issue of foreign residents. Efforts to raise the birthrate remain necessary, but in the short term, opening the door to foreign residents is the most effective measure. Fully embracing immigration may be politically difficult at present, but lowering barriers for foreigners is essential to long-term sustainability.

Since the 2000s, the government has relied on the employment permit system to bring in foreign workers. However, professionals and managers account for less than 10 percent of all foreign workers, and their share has been declining. According to QS, a British higher education analytics firm, South Korea is projected to surpass Japan by 2030 to become the region’s second-largest destination for international students. Yet only about 15 percent of international students who graduate from Korean universities currently remain in the country.

From the perspective of foreign professionals, South Korean companies still tend to maintain rigid hierarchical workplace cultures. Living conditions are also often viewed as unfavorable. Highly educated foreigners seek not only competitive pay but also opportunities for professional development. Singapore has introduced a two-year special visa, known as Tech.Pass, for founders and professionals. Germany issues an opportunity card to individuals who meet specific education and work experience criteria, allowing them to enter the country before securing employment. South Korea, by comparison, continues to impose relatively high barriers. It is time to open the door wider so that more global talent can stay.