U.S.-China talks spark concerns over regional security risks

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed Trump’s planned visit to China in April and Xi’s return trip to the United States during a phone call on November 24. The conversation followed last month’s Busan meeting, where the two leaders agreed to a truce in their trade conflict, signaling the start of broader efforts to improve bilateral relations. An unexpected topic in the discussion between the G2 leaders was Taiwan. China’s Foreign Ministry said Xi told Trump, “Taiwan’s return to China is an important component of the postwar order.” Trump responded, “I understand that Taiwan is important to China.”

Although Trump later called Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to explain the discussion with Xi, the conversation likely surprised Tokyo, a key U.S. ally. Takaichi’s remarks about intervening in the event of a Taiwan contingency could have triggered a strong retaliatory response from China. Trump’s statement that he understood China’s position of “not touching Taiwan” can be interpreted in this context. The Japanese prime minister’s comments crossed China’s red line but were aligned with the U.S. approach of prioritizing the prevention of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as a top military objective.

The episode highlights what analysts call “Trump risk,” emphasizing U.S. gains in dealings between major powers over solidarity with allies. Trump repeatedly emphasized the economic benefits of tariffs on China but consistently avoided answering questions about whether he would defend Taiwan in a crisis. This reflects the core of his “America First” MAGA philosophy: even if Japan is an ally and Taiwan a friend, the United States avoids conflicts that do not serve its interests.

A similar pattern appears in efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Recently revealed U.S. proposals acknowledge Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territory while offering vague security guarantees for Ukraine. Trump appears to prioritize potential U.S. economic gains from ending the war over cooperation with European allies and Ukraine, seeking a resolution through direct negotiations with Russia.

Concerns over Trump-driven “alliance risk” extend to South Korea. The United States plans to refocus U.S. Forces Korea on countering China, which could increase the risk of South Korea becoming a potential target of Chinese attacks. Depending on the outcome of next year’s U.S.-China meetings and Trump’s decisions, the international security order could face major disruption. Careful analysis and the establishment of clear diplomatic principles and strategies will be crucial for South Korea to avoid a vulnerable position between the two powers.