Experts warn against rushing denuclearization strategy

The 27 letters exchanged between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump around their three summits remain cringe-worthy. Amid the flattery, some passages reveal Kim’s true intentions, including a blunt display of his Tongmi Bongnam approach in a Sept. 21, 2018, letter. He wrote that South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s “excessive interest in our matters is unnecessary” and that he wanted to discuss nuclear issues only with Trump. Even as inter-Korean relations were rapidly advancing, the letter exposed Kim’s plan to bypass South Korea and negotiate directly with the United States.

The situation is no different for President Lee Jae-myung, who faces Kim Jong Un during Trump’s second term. Kim’s disregard and cold treatment of South Korea, under the guise of dealing only with “hostile nations,” is expected to intensify. Aware of this, Lee’s foreign and security team has defined the president’s role as a “pacemaker,” allowing Trump, who holds significant influence over North Korea, to lead while South Korea coordinates closely to support his efforts.

Trump has yet to make any significant moves at the starting line of North Korea-U.S. relations. While he has expressed a willingness to engage with Kim, his attention is currently focused on the war in Ukraine and tariff negotiations. A surprise meeting between Trump and Kim at the APEC summit in Riyadh cannot be ruled out, but no concrete signals have emerged from either side.

Even so, Lee’s administration is already showing signs of impatience in its North Korea policy. The government appears ready to roll out a series of conciliatory measures that previous conservative administrations had resisted. Halting the distribution of propaganda leaflets and stopping loudspeaker broadcasts near the border may be understandable to protect local residents. But ruling party figures have vocally pledged to restore the Sept. 19 inter-Korean military agreement within the year. This would revive a deal that had previously weakened South Korea’s reconnaissance, surveillance, and live-fire exercises in the DMZ without any conditions. Unification Minister Jeong Dong-young, who has no authority over military operations, publicly called for suspending live-fire and maneuver drills.

Lee’s “END Initiative,” announced at the U.N. General Assembly, combines exchanges with North Korea and normalization efforts into a single plan, blurring the step-by-step negotiation approach traditionally used in denuclearization talks. He also indicated to investors in New York that some sanctions on North Korea could be eased first. Denuclearization appears largely off the table, with the focus instead on delivering visible improvements in inter-Korean relations.

Even senior figures in the pro-independence camp are pressing for faster action. Former Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun, a member of the “Six Independence Faction” along with National Intelligence Service chief Lee Jong-seok, said, “There are too many pro-alliance figures around the president,” calling for a reform of the foreign and security team. Their efforts to unsettle key national security officials less than 100 days into Lee’s administration, before substantive policies have begun, raise questions about their intentions. As Jeong put it, this could undermine the president’s North Korea policy.

In a marathon, the pacemaker’s role is to control pace, maintaining a steady rhythm to match the target time. Running too fast early can drain energy and disrupt the race. The lesson is even more crucial in the long run toward North Korean denuclearization. With the unpredictable Trump potentially making sudden moves, South Korea must not rush ahead.