Lee Jae-myung leads three-way race by 11 points

If the June 3 presidential election were held today as a three-way race, 45.9 percent of voters would support Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung, giving him an 11.5-point lead over People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo. Reform Party contender Lee Jun-seok polled 11.3 percent, marking a double-digit rise.

The results come from a nationwide poll commissioned by The Dong-A Ilbo and conducted by Research & Research on May 24 and 25. The survey was conducted through 100 percent mobile phone interviews using random digit dialing (RDD) and included 1,008 adults. Lee Jae-myung led with 45.9 percent, followed by Kim at 34.4 percent and Lee Jun-seok at 11.3 percent.

A Channel A poll conducted May 19 and 20 with 1,014 respondents showed similar results: Lee Jae-myung at 45.6 percent, Kim at 34.4 percent, and Lee Jun-seok at 9.3 percent. Both surveys had a 95 percent confidence level and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The response rates were 10.8 percent and 16.0 percent, respectively.

When asked what could most influence the outcome, 34.1 percent cited the possibility of a merger between Kim and Lee Jun-seok. Still, in hypothetical one-on-one matchups, Lee Jae-myung continued to lead. In a direct race against Kim, Lee received 50.0 percent to Kim’s 41.6 percent, an 8.4-point margin. Against Lee Jun-seok, Lee polled at 49.3 percent to Lee Jun-seok’s 34.9 percent, a 14.4-point advantage.

As for who would be the better unified conservative candidate, 45.4 percent chose Kim while 25.9 percent preferred Lee Jun-seok. Among politically moderate voters, Kim led with 37.0 percent to Lee Jun-seok’s 29.7 percent. Respondents were nearly split when asked whether the two should merge campaigns, with 42.2 percent in favor and 41.5 percent opposed. Among moderates, 49.3 percent were against a merger while 31.0 percent supported it.

Despite personal choice, 63.4 percent said Lee Jae-myung is most likely to win, more than double the 28.3 percent who predicted a Kim victory. Voter loyalty remained strong, with 86.9 percent saying they would stick with their current choice and 12.8 percent open to switching.

A total of 90.6 percent said they intend to vote in the presidential election. Of those, 61.3 percent plan to vote on election day, while 35.0 percent intend to vote early. On the question of constitutional reform, 61.8 percent said an amendment on presidential term limits is necessary, compared with 31.7 percent who disagreed.


윤다빈 기자 empty@donga.com