End of Trans-Atlantic alliance, Indo-Pacific arms race

Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles met with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in Washington on Feb. 7. As part of the AUKUS security pact signed in September 2021 between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, Canberra agreed to purchase up to five U.S.-built nuclear-powered submarines. During his visit, Marles made a $500 million payment, part of the $3 billion Australia has pledged toward the deal.

When AUKUS was first established, U.S. President Joe Biden and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison led their respective nations. Despite changes in leadership—with Donald Trump now serving as U.S. president and Anthony Albanese as Australia’s prime minister—the military partnership between the two countries remains steadfast. Both nations remain committed to countering China’s growing influence in the region.

Meanwhile, the U.S.-Europe alliance, a cornerstone of Western security for 80 years since the end of World War II, is facing unprecedented strain. Trump’s return to the White House and the ongoing war in Ukraine have accelerated a shift in transatlantic relations. In negotiations to end the war, Trump has aligned more closely with Russia, Western Europe’s long-standing adversary, while renewing his demands for increased European defense spending even more aggressively than during his first term.

In response, European nations are pushing for greater security independence, distancing themselves from Washington. The alliance was forged through shared pride in their victories over Nazi totalitarianism in World War II and Soviet communism during the Cold War. But now, under the heavy weight of economic and military pressures, it stands on the brink of becoming a relic of history.

The geopolitical fallout is certainly being felt in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. is pulling back from Europe to concentrate on its escalating rivalry with China—while Beijing, in turn, refuses to back down. Major regional powers are responding by strengthening their own defense capabilities.

Japan, which shares Washington and Canberra’s strategic concerns over China, is seeking deeper involvement in AUKUS. In October, Japan participated as an observer in a trilateral maritime exercise conducted by the U.S., U.K., and Australia. Former Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso even suggested expanding the alliance to include Japan, rebranding it as “JAUKUS.”

Taiwan also announced on March 18 that it would increase its defense budget from 2.5% to 3% of its GDP. This summer, Taiwan’s annual ‘Han Kuang military exercises’ will reportedly include a scenario simulating a Chinese invasion in 2027. This marks Taiwan’s first military preparations to specify a potential timeline for a Chinese invasion, according to Taiwanese media reports, including the China Times.

In the South China Sea, the Philippines is also reinforcing its military ties with the U.S. and Japan amid ongoing maritime disputes with Beijing. The leaders of the three nations held their first-ever trilateral summit in Washington last April and convened again online this January.

In response, China has ramped up its own defense spending, approving a 7.2% increase for 2025, bringing its annual military budget to 1.78 trillion yuan (approximately 356.5 trillion won). That figure has more than doubled since 2013 (from 144.2 trillion won) when President Xi Jinping first took office.

As major Indo-Pacific nations bolster their military capabilities, concerns are growing over South Korea’s strategic position. In an era where self-reliance and military expansion have become the “new normal,” Seoul’s security policies appear increasingly adrift.