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Luhansk and Sevastopol

Posted November. 22, 2022 07:46,   

Updated November. 22, 2022 07:46


Many people ask me when the Russo-Ukrainian War would end. It would be impossible to know when the war ends exactly, but two decisive areas force Russia to end the war. It is Luhansk on the Eastern Front. The best-case scenario would have been recapturing Izyum and occupying Sloviansk, Severodonetsk, all the way to Luhansk and Donetsk, but it is not easy without enormous military strength. Historically, when fighting against the Russian army, its counterpart shouldn’t push forward just because it has gained momentum, but it should shake the army with tactics until the end.

In short, bypass and pressure it instead of going straight forward. Currently, a front is formed in Svatove, and advancing toward Starobil's'k would pressure Luhansk and Severodonetsk, and the Donetsk area in the south will also be burdened.

There is Crimea in the south. Russia's defensive line on the Dnipro River is at stake, even though it is withdrawn from Kherson. As the land of Crimea is not good at defending, if the Ukrainian army crosses the river, it can rush to the southern end of Crimea. However, a formidable fortress awaits in the south. It's Sevastopol. It has already fought two legendary battles as a strategic hub to gain control over Crimea and the Black Sea. In 1853, the Crimean War occurred between Russia, the Ottoman Empire, and the British and French allies. The British and French troops besieged and attacked Sevastopol. It was captured in the end, but it is recorded as a nightmare that caused enormous sacrifices on both sides. 130,000 French and British soldiers and 100,000 Russian soldiers were killed or injured. Half of the total casualties of the war were caused in Sevastopol.

During World War II, German Field Marshal Erich von Manstein besieged Sevastopol, guarded by Russian troops. The Germans thought they would win easily, but the siege lasted 10 months. About 120,000 Russian soldiers were killed or taken prisoner. The German troops also suffered 120,000 casualties. Sevastopol has become a real fortress as the base of the Russian Black Sea fleet. Will there be another nightmare? If things go this far without taking Sevastopol, Russia will lose its momentum to continue the war. At which city will the war end?