Speeds of fastballs seen as key to Ryu Hyun-jin’s successful comeback

`#95 mph (about 153 km per hour).’

This is the hashtag that Ryu Hyun-jin (29), a Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher who is taking rehabilitation training after shoulder surgery, posted in his Instagram page together with a photo of him engaged in long toss training in December last year. He thus expressed his wish to recover the power of his pitches before the surgery by completing the rehabilitation training safe and sound.

With the opening of the 2016 Major League Baseball season about 80 days away, attention is focusing on whether Ryu will be able to make a successful comeback or not. The key to his revival is the speed of his fastballs. The speed of fastballs is important to Ryu, who had been using change-ups and curves as his main weapons of pitching. The more powerful his fastballs, the higher the effect of his slow change-ups becomes.

His fastballs measuring 95 miles per hour have been the main tool of victory for Ryu thus far. According to BrooksBaseball.net, a Major League Baseball statistics site, Ryu marked the speed of his fastballs exceeding 95 miles per hour in 11 of the 58 games (excluding the opening game in Australia in 2014) in which Ryu served as starting pitcher in the 2013 and 2014 seasons. Of the 11 games, Ryu garnered wins in eight games. He was able to outfox the batters as he pleased, by banking on fast speeds of his fastballs.

Ryu also would pitch fastballs that amounted to about 95 miles per hour when he set personal records as well. In the home game on May 28 against the Los Angels Dodgers, in which he pitched the fastest ball (95.4 miles) in the 2013 regular season, Ryu garnered his first shutout since his Major League debut. In the home game against Cincinnati on May 26, in which the top speed of his fastballs was the fastest (95.4 miles) in the 2014 season, he displayed a perfect game through the seventh inning.

In contrast, in 24 games in which the top speed of his fastballs failed to exceed 94 miles, he posted nine wins and eight losses. In five games in which the average speed of his fastballs was blow 90 miles, Ryu had two wins and three losses. In the game against the San Francisco Giants in September 2014, in which he recorded the top speed of his fastballs at 92.2 miles, he was knocked out after the first inning.

In other words, if he fails to recover the speed of his pitches, he will have a cloudy future ahead. In fact, the shoulder surgery that Ryu received reportedly offers a lower chance for revival than elbow surgery. For this reason, some U.S. media outlets even regard Ryu not as the third starting pitcher but as fourth or fifth starting pitcher of his team.

“We should consider the fact that performances Ryu Hyun-jin displayed for the past two seasons were achieved despite him having shoulder pain," MBC baseball commentator Heo Gu-yeon said. “If he adequately rehabilitate and increase the speed of his pitches, rather than focusing on a race to become a starting pitcher in early days of the season, he will be sufficiently qualified to serve as the second starting pitcher of the team.”

If he fails to regain the speed of his pitches of the past, he could also consider changing his pitching style including throwing more change-up pitches, but it is easier said than done. Ryu’s change-ups as his most powerful weapon is among the best even in the U.S., but unless they are combined with fast speeds, his pitches will only result in a flurry of hits by batters. To Major League batters who generate extra-base hits without fail from faulty pitches even if these are as fast as 150 km per hour, faulty change-ups will come without doubt as prays. “(If the speed of his pitches declines), he will eventually have to embrace the task of developing new tactics including enhancing the ball control of his pitches or diversifying the type of pitches depending on batters,” MBC Sports Plus baseball commentator Song Jae-woo said. This is the reason Ryu is desperate about 95 (miles) as he suggested in his SNS post.

windup@donga.com