Korea`s working-age population to see world`s fastest fall: OECD

Korea’s working-age population will shrink at the world`s fastest pace over the next 50 years, causing annual economic growth to plunge to 1 percent after 2031, said a report released Sunday.

Titled “Looking to 2060: Long-term Global Growth Prospects,” the report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Korea’s working-age population between the ages 15 and 64 will represent 52.3 percent of the population in 2060, down from 72.5 percent last year. This will be the largest decline among 34 OECD member nations and eight non-member countries. Korea was expected to have the second-lowest share of the working-age population in 2060 among 42 countries following Japan (51.1 percent).

The OECD predicted that Korea will see the lowest annual average growth of 1.0 percent between 2031 and 2060 among 42 countries except for Luxembourg (0.6 percent). Korea ranked fifth among the 42 with average annual growth of 4.6 percent between 1995 and 2011, but the growth rate is expected to fall to 2.7 percent between 2011 and 2030, and further down to 1.0 percent after 2031.

The average annual growth rate of the 42 countries between 2031 and 2060 will be 1.9 percent, and the average of OECD member nations will be 1.7 percent, much higher than Korea’s. The report added that Korea will see its savings rate in the private sector decline at the world`s fastest pace due to aging and declining working-age population.

The OECD also said the sharp growth of emerging economies such as China and India will change the dynamics of the global economy in 2060. The GDPs of China and India together will exceed that of all G-7 economies combined in 2025 and that of all OECD member nations in 2050.

jarrett@donga.com