How to pick the opposition camp`s unified pres. candidate

Time is the biggest variable in selecting either the main opposition Democratic United Party’s Moon Jae-in or his independent rival Ahn Cheol-soo as the opposition camp’s unified candidate in next month’s presidential election.

The liberal camp must consider that the deadline for candidate registration is Nov. 26th. Certain opposition strategists say selecting the candidate after registration might not be all bad, adding that making a decision too early might be no good. Yet the opinion of the majority of voters that the selection comes before the deadline will likely be reflected.

A variety of methods to select the unified candidate has been considered including polls, survey of panelists after TV debates, an open primary through mobile phone voting as well as at polling places, and negotiations between the two candidates. One of the above methods or a compilation of multiple ways with different ratios applied could be used.

The Democratic United Party wants the open primary in which party members can participate. And Ahn`s camp wants weight on polls to prevent organizational intervention.

To field a single candidate before Nov. 26, the two sides need to draw a conclusion by Nov. 20. Though both men could make a decision next week, conducting an open primary will become impossible the following week because election law states that a rally of party members cannot be held within 30 days before an election, which means a rally cannot be held from Nov. 19.

Certain experts say a rally to elect the unified candidate should be allowed regardless of the restriction. Even if this is the case, however, Ahn must join Moon’s party before the rally, which seems unlikely based on Ahn’s attitude toward the subject.

Against this backdrop, public opinion polls seem to be the only option for the selection of the unified candidate. Moon earlier pledged not to pursue timing or a method that would benefit him in finding a way to decide on the candidate.

Other than polls, another option is TV debates because they provide an excellent public relations opportunity while maximizing the effect of electing a unified opposition candidate. If this method is chosen, polls will be conducted after the debate as was done in the 2002 selection of a unified candidate between Roh Moo-hyun and Chung Mong-joon.

If negotiations between Moon and Ahn reach a conclusion swiftly, mobile votes might be added to the polls due to a strong request by the Democratic United Party.

leon@donga.com