Will President Roh Meet Kim Jong Il?

President Roh Moo-hyun consistently said that there will be no second round of inter-Korean summit talks unless North Korea’s nuclear issue is resolved.

In other words, he maintained his “nuclear issue resolution first, inter-Korean summit next” policy. That is why Cheong Wa Dae responded, “The South Korean government does not have any plan for a summit,” whenever it was asked about a meeting between the leaders of the two Koreas.

President Roh, however, seemed to have recently shifted his stance on the summit. He expressed a strong intention of meeting with the North Korean leader in his state visit to Ulan Bator, Mongolia on May 9. That can be translated into his determination to realize an inter-Korean summit when former president Kim Dae-jung’s visit to the North scheduled in June succeeds.

On the June visit, Mr. Kim is planning to suggest the North leader first, pay a visit to Seoul in return for his visit to Pyongyang in 2000; second, designate a third place as a summit place among Jeju Island, Gaesong Industrial Complex or Dorasan station in Paju City, the first train station that connects the cross-border railway between North and South Korea; third, hold the meeting in Pyongyang.

Meanwhile, some lawmakers in the ruling Uri Party recently talked about the possibility that the summit will be held in Pyongyang this October. One of them, lawmaker Choi Sung, said in a questionnaire issued before a parliamentary interpellation session that North Korea wants to hold a second inter-Korean summit around October 3, or National Foundation Day, in its capital Pyongyang.

It is unknown whether the North Korean leader is willing to meet with President Roh, who will leave office just a year and nine months later. That is why Cheong Wa Dae insiders do not think the summit is likely to be held next year, the last year of Mr. Roh’s presidency.

But, an official of Cheong Wa Dae said on May 10 that Kim Dae-jung will never come back without any outcome from his visit in June.

The real issue is on what President Roh will discuss with Kim Jong Il, Chairman of the National Defense Commission of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, even if he meets with the chairman. The summit will meet a stumbling block at the very beginning of selecting issues to be discussed in the meeting if North Korea does not change its current stance after Kim Dae-jung’s visit in June.

Provided that the summit is realized, the number one issue to be talked about will be North Korea’s nuclear program. President Roh said in his commencement speech at the Korea Military Academy on March 3 that he would make this year a turning point in resolving the nuclear issue by doing his utmost to resume the six-party talks.

As another possible issue to be discussed in the meeting, some in the political circle talk about a confederation system -- one of the systems that could be used as a Korea reunification formula. But Cheong Wa Dae dismisses the idea, saying that President Roh thinks talking about the issue in the summit may only further delay reunification, as well as it is not an urgent issue.

Whatever is discussed in the meeting, a second round of inter-Korean summit talks is expected to influence the presidential election to be held next year if the meeting is realized after Kim Dae Jung’s visit to the North in June.

Jung-Hun Kim jnghn@donga.com