Uri Party Forecasted to Win Majority of Seats

According to the Dong-A Ilbo’s analysis as of April 12, generated from public opinion polls and internal surveys of each political party, the pro-government Uri Party is estimated to occupy up to 150 out of 299 assembly seats, including those for proportional representatives.

The opposition Grand National Party (GNP) is predicted to take about 120 seats including those for proportional representatives.

However, around 30 out of 243 local electorates, which are mainly located in metropolitan areas, are showing highly competitive races between candidates. Therefore, it is still a possibility that the GNP could take first place based on the floating voters’ last-minute decisions.

Yesterday, the Uri Party has been leading in 68 electorates out of 243 nationwide, including metropolitan areas such as Seoul, Incheon-Gyeonggi province, and Jeolla-Choongchung provinces, and has been slightly predominant among tight competition in 50 electorates. Accordingly, it is forecasted to hold 110 to 120 seats by local electorates and an additional 22 to 24 seats for proportional representatives.

The GNP has been leading in 77 local electorates, of which 60 electorates have been showing stable support and of which nine electorates are slightly predominant. 18 electorates have been in a hotly contested situation until now. The GNP estimates that it will gain around 18 proportional representative seats in the Assembly.

However, the majority of competitive electorates reveals the GNP’s strong follow-up attack, and therefore, there is a hope for the opposition party to gain more than 100 seats from local electorates.

In the metropolitan area, the Uri Party holds first place by leading in 45 electorates and narrowly leading in more than 70 competitive electorates. The GNP is predominant in 19 electorates, but is also chasing candidates of the Uri Party in Gangbuk, Gangsuh, Gangdong in Seoul and the new towns.

In southeastern Korea, the GNP is leading in 27 districts in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk area. 41 districts of Busan-Gyeongnam area also show the GNP’s predominance, except for 6 to 7 electorates.

Meanwhile, candidates of the Uri Party and the United Liberal Democrats are in a dead heat in Choongchung area, and the Uri Party and the Millennium Democratic Party are narrowing their gap in southwestern Korea. If proportional representatives are included, the Millennium Democratic Party and the Democratic Labor Party are likely to occupy around 10 seats each.

Young-Chan Yoon yyc11@donga.com