Infodemic, More Fearful Than SARS

A more fearful disease than SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, is what is called the `information epidemic`. A viral epidemic kills people, but an information epidemic can spread just as fast to result in social and economic ills for a nation.

David Rothkopf, chairman and CEO of Intellibridge Corporation which provides open-source intelligence and analysis, wrote an article for the Washington Post on May 11. He coined the phrase, information epidemic or “infodemic" for short. The following is a summary of the article.

In virtually every respect, an infodemic are no different than viral epidemic. It was epidemiological causes, identifiable symptoms, well-known carriers, and even cures. An infodemic is not just the spread of rumors. It is also a complex phenomenon caused by the interaction of mainstream media, specialist media, internet sites and "informal" media such as wireless phones, text messaging, pagers, faxes and e-mail.

SARS reportedly has taken its toll with around 7,000 victims and 500 deaths so far. It is still a tiny fraction compared to the number of Americans who choke to death each year on small objects, which is estimated at 4,700 people. Yet, fear of SARS has devastated Asian economies. The Asian Development Bank estimates that if SARS continues until September, associated losses in Asia could approach $30 billion. Some Wall Street analysts have speculated that the disease could possibly lead to a devaluation of China`s currency.

Terrorism panic is also the same. Year 2002 was the year of the most heightened state of terrorism panic in U.S. history, according to the State Department, yet terrorism fell to its lowest level since 1969 during that year. Other examples also prove the power of infodemics, and these include the impact of the Enron scandal on markets and the effect of the war with Iraq on stopping travel to the Mediterranean.

The cause and cure sit on two sides of a coin. The Chinese government spent most of its efforts trying to cover up the outbreak of SARS during its early stages. Hence, whenever the Chinese government announced that there was nothing to worry about, fear of SARS instead was amplified.

Trust is the wonder drug. The only way to prevent an infodemic is to operate an early alarm stystem before the unidentified spread of information, then find the source of the information, and finally inform people about the information itself.

Eun-Taek Hong euntack@donga.com