Presidential Poll

The results of the June 13 Local Elections seem to have noticeably affected voters` support for their preferred candidates or political parties for the coming December Presidential election. It became more apparent in the June 15th nationwide telephone poll that surveyed 1,592 adults on two-way presidential race between Hoi-Chang Lee, the presidential candidate of the Grand National Party (GNP) and Moo-Hyun Roh, the Millennium Democratic Party (MDP) presidential nominee. The poll conducted in partnership with Dong-A News and Korea Research Center reveals that the former came in the first place by earning 41.4 percentage points of the support, holding a 14.6 point lead over the latter who received 26.8 percentage points of the support.

The above poll finding suggests that the support for the two presidential nominees were reversed by a relatively large proportion compared to the poll held on May 25th where Mr. Roh won over Mr. Lee by 3.7 percentage points. Indeed it reveals that the 16.3 percentage point decline in support for Mr. Roh by voters in their thirties led Mr.Lee (32.5%) and Mr. Roh (35.9%) to become in a virtual tie compared to the May 25th telephone survey.

It is also interesting to note that a substantial share of voters in Seoul and Chungcheong region are now voting in favor of Mr. Lee while that of Mr. Roh fell drastically in almost every region, but the most concerning result of the poll was the growing segment of indecisive voters in Youngnam and Honam regions.

The same story holds true for his three way presidential race with Mr. Roh and Geun-Hye Park, the leader of Korean Coalition for the Future. Mr. Lee (39.6 %) still held a 14 points lead over Mr. Roh (25.6%). Geun-Hye Park only received 8.7 percentage points of the support. It also suggests that in the three-way presidential race among Mr. Lee,Mr. Roh, and Mong-Jun Jeong, an independent candidate, Mr. Lee received 36.0 % points while Mr. Roh and Mr. Jeong won 22.9% and 15.3% points of the support respectively. It also found a 7 percent point increase in voters` support for Mr. Jeong from that of 8.3 % points in the previous May 1st poll result.

The poll indicates that voters` support of political parties range from the Grand National Party (34.0%), Millennium Democratic Party (17.9%), Democratic Labor Party (4.2%), and the United Liberal Democrats (0.8 %).

Poll respondents stress that the frustration over the corruption committed by the third son of the President Kim Dae-jung and the President`s close associates (52.8 %) was the primary factor which led to the success or failure of the local election success and/or failure. It has been reported that voters` disappointment over the MDP (23.8%) rather than their anticipation of the GNP (8.3 %) had more influence on the June 13 Local Election results.

The telephone poll conducted on June 15th had a margin of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence interval.

sunny60@donga.com