“The Relocation of Overseas U.S. Forces Brings No Enhancement of a Rapid Reaction Capability”

It has been confirmed that the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) drew up a review report on three plans for the redeployment and reduction of the U.S. Forces in Korea (USFK), including its total withdrawal scenario, and reported it to the Senate Budget Committee.

At the request of the Senate Budget Committee, the CBO posted its report titled “The Selective Ways for Change in the U.S. Army’s Overseas Posts” on its website on Wednesday, which analyzed issues including cost problems caused by seven types of redeployment of the U.S. Army in South Korea and Germany.

As to the redeployment of the 28,000 USFK soldiers, this report analyzed it by dividing into some scenarios: 1. Integrating bases while keeping the current status, 2. Reducing it in half to 13,000 soldiers and rotating combatant brigades, 3. Leaving 1,000 soldiers and withdrawing the rest.

In particular, citing this report based on the announced plan or unofficial discussion by the administration, CBO implied that these three scenarios had been fully discussed within the Bush administration.

According to this report, CBO analyzed that if the U.S. chose the first scenario (the relocation of the U.S. 2nd Division to the rear line), it would result in costs of $4 billion for construction and repair of its base and $100 million for the relocation. It estimated this assuming that if Korea covers 65 percent of the entire relocation costs, the U.S. would cover $1.4 billion at least and $4 billion at most. Reckoning backwards, Korea would pay $2.6 billion at least and $7.4 billion at most

However, this report said that no defense analyst raised questions about the actual maintenance of the U.S.’ armed forces in South Korea, unlike Europe, to keep its deterrence against North Korea. In addition, the CBO pointed out in this report that the effect of the relocation plan of overseas U.S. forces under the Defense Department had proven to be almost nothing or so small in terms of the reduction in the defense budget or the enhancement of a rapid reaction capability.

Soon-Taek Kwon maypole@donga.com