Gulf states face new risks to stability

The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait have long been seen as a modern-day oasis in the Middle East. Collectively known as the Gulf states, they built advanced economic infrastructure on the strength of vast oil wealth. Their strategic position linking Asia, Africa and Europe helped turn them into global centers for logistics, finance, conventions and aviation. Like the desert oases of earlier eras, they became magnets for people, capital and trade.

That rise has also rested on a carefully cultivated image of stability. Close security cooperation with the United States allowed these countries to brand themselves as a safe zone in a volatile region. For years, they remained largely insulated from the terrorism and conflicts that afflicted much of the Middle East.

The war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, which erupted on Feb. 28, has shaken that image. The Gulf states are not direct participants, yet the presence of U.S. military bases and related facilities has drawn them into the conflict’s reach.

The United Arab Emirates, which has been most proactive in positioning itself as a regional hub, has borne the brunt. According to the UAE government, 319 missiles and 1,627 drones have been launched from Iran since the outbreak of hostilities. Most were intercepted, but the scale alone suggests a country exposed to the realities of war.

Several factors help explain why the UAE has been a primary target. It hosts U.S. military facilities and has a history of territorial disputes with Iran. Its decision, alongside Bahrain, to normalize relations with Israel in 2020 also set it apart. Some analysts argue that Iran is seeking to amplify perceptions of risk by targeting the Gulf’s most visible success story, potentially undermining its appeal to foreign investors.

Qatar and Oman have pursued a different path, casting themselves as diplomatic hubs. Both have maintained relatively stable ties with Iran. Qatar shares the world’s largest offshore natural gas field with Iran and hosts a Hamas political office in Doha. Oman has played a mediating role in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, hosting negotiations in Muscat and facilitating dialogue in Geneva. Yet these ties have offered little protection. Qatar, home to a U.S. base, and Oman, which hosts U.S.-related facilities, have also come under attack. In Qatar, anger has grown over early strikes on natural gas infrastructure, a pillar of its economy.

The immediate damage is visible, but the longer-term implications may prove more consequential. Iran’s drones and missiles are not only testing the Gulf states’ defenses. They are casting doubt on the stability that underpins their economic model and future ambitions.

In recent years, the Gulf states have sought to channel oil wealth into new industries, from artificial intelligence and aerospace to finance and content. These efforts have been reinforced by a younger generation of leaders shaped by global experience and more open outlooks. Many saw this shift as a path toward economic diversification and broader social change. For global companies, it opened new opportunities. For less resource-rich countries in the region, it offered the prospect of positive spillover effects.

That trajectory is now under strain. Before advancing their long-term vision, the Gulf states must first address renewed concerns over security risk. In the near term, attracting investment, businesses and talent may become more difficult. Some observers warn that a prolonged conflict could force a significant recalibration of their development strategies. Given their economic and political weight, any such shift would reverberate across the Middle East. The risk of a drawn-out war, and the continuing threat of Iranian attacks, will remain a source of unease for the foreseeable future.