History shows war rarely ends war

The phrase most closely associated with World War I is “the war to end all wars.” History, however, tells a different story. The conflict did not bring an end to war. Instead, it set the stage for the next global catastrophe.

In the fourth century B.C., Alexander the Great of Macedon conquered much of the known world while pursuing the vision of a single empire. In many ways, his ambition reflected the same hope. It, too, proved short-lived. After his death, the fragile unity he forged quickly gave way to renewed struggles for division.

Wars fought to unite territories under a single state or cultural sphere can sometimes bring periods of stability. Korea’s unified kingdoms, China’s unified dynasties and Japan under the Tokugawa shogunate offer such examples.

Powerful states can also invite new conflict. The rise of Goguryeo, for example, prompted repeated invasions by the Sui dynasty and the Tang dynasty. In other cases, as with the Sui and Tang themselves, confidence gained through unification later gave way to campaigns of expansion.

Despite countless attempts, humanity has yet to find a way to end war. It may never do so. That is the sobering reality. An even more troubling truth has emerged. As economic globalization deepens, conflicts that begin locally rarely remain contained. Every war now reverberates through the global economy and reaches far beyond the battlefield into the daily lives of people around the world. Put simply, any regional conflict carries the potential to escalate into an international war, even a global one.

The central challenge of the 21st century may not be preventing war itself but stopping conflicts from spreading. The Russia-Ukraine war has already taken on many features of an international conflict, even as the parties involved have tried to contain further escalation. By contrast, a potential confrontation between the United States and Iran appears to be moving more directly toward a broader international clash.

The world now faces a moment of high-stakes brinkmanship. The question is whether global alarm will force a halt before events spiral further, or whether debates over the purpose, justification and morality of war will give way to stark calculations of survival, pushing nations toward increasingly self-interested actions.

For now, no clear solution is in sight. The forces driving conflicts toward wider escalation continue to build. There remains hope that events may still stop here. Even if they do, the world may be entering a phase in which moral arguments lose much of their force and hard realities take precedence.