Iran protests escalate as death toll rises

Anti-government protests that began in Iran on Dec. 28 have intensified, leaving at least 116 people dead, Reuters and other news outlets reported Jan. 10. With the Iranian government cutting off external connections, including the internet and international phone calls, and launching a hard-line crackdown, the death toll is expected to rise.

Amid the unrest, U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States was ready to help protesters, raising the prospect of external involvement. As deepening economic hardship converges with the possibility of U.S. intervention, analysts say Iran’s theocratic system, led by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is facing its gravest crisis in 47 years.

● Iran prosecutor general warns protesters face death penalty

According to Reuters and The Associated Press, the U.S.-based human rights group Human Rights Activists News Agency said at least 116 people have been killed in Iran’s anti-government protests. As authorities intensified their crackdown, the death toll nearly doubled from 65 reported a day earlier. More than 2,600 people have been arrested or detained. With the Iranian government blocking international phone calls and internet access since Jan. 8, making independent verification difficult, the actual number of people killed or injured is likely higher.

Videos obtained by CNN and the BBC show escalating clashes between Iranian authorities and protesters. At a hospital in eastern Tehran, bodies were seen piled on top of one another. Footage from western Tehran showed at least seven bodies, believed to be victims of gunfire, lying in a parking lot. Vehicles and buildings burned across city streets, and a mosque was also set ablaze. Iranian citizens have used virtual private networks to bypass internet restrictions and share footage of the crackdown. Amnesty International said it was examining “disturbing reports that authorities are intensifying their use of lethal force.” Shirin Ebadi, an Iranian human rights activist and the 2003 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, warned that the internet shutdown “could be preparation for a massacre.”

By contrast, Iranian state media have stressed that some protesters were armed. The state-run Tasnim News Agency reported that authorities arrested about 200 protesters carrying firearms, grenades and gasoline bombs. The government has made clear its intention to pursue a hard-line response. Iran’s prosecutor general, Mohammad Movahedi Azad, warned that anyone who takes part in protests would be considered an enemy of God, a charge punishable by death. He added that those who assist protesters would face the same accusation.

● U.S. begins preliminary review of possible strikes on Iran

The United States has signaled that it may intervene in the crisis in Iran. Trump wrote on Truth Social on Jan. 10 that Iranians may be seeking freedom more than ever and that the United States was ready to help. At a White House event the previous day, he also raised the possibility of military involvement, saying the United States would intervene and strike Iran where it would hurt the most.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. military has held preliminary discussions to prepare for a potential response. A U.S. military official told the newspaper that the talks included the possibility of large-scale airstrikes targeting Iranian military facilities.

Foreign media outlets are increasingly suggesting that Iran’s theocratic system has reached its limits. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has long portrayed himself as a leader guiding Iran as a dominant force in the Middle East, but his authority suffered a major blow after Iran’s decisive defeat in a 12-day war against Israel and the United States last year. Prolonged economic hardship has deepened to the point that even the middle class is struggling to cope, prompting merchants who traditionally supported the government to turn against the Khamenei administration.

According to Middle East sources, protesters’ anger is driven by questions over why people must endure poverty in a country rich in oil and natural gas, fertile farmland and a vast cultural heritage. Protesters have also chanted slogans rejecting the political system itself, including calls for the return of the Pahlavi dynasty and for Khamenei’s death.

Still, some analysts caution that the immediate collapse of the Khamenei regime remains unlikely. The military, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which underpins national security and public order and wields significant economic influence through its control of state-run enterprises, has so far remained loyal to Khamenei. The Guard is also reported to be considering deploying elite forces to protest sites.

Analysts say the absence of a clear alternative leader or a unifying opposition movement further limits the durability and expansion of the anti-government protests.


Keun-Hyung Yoo noel@donga.com