Russia pushes offensive as Ukraine war continues dragging

When the war between Russia and Ukraine began, many expected it would end this year, though not easily. Now, with only two months remaining, that prediction seems increasingly unlikely. Russia appears to be using negotiations with the United States to buy time while launching its highest-level offensive to seize as much territory as possible. However, the offensive has fallen short of expectations, and Russia is struggling to secure manpower, deploying North Korean troops and Cuban mercenaries. Its finances, sustained largely by dumping sales, also appear to be nearing their limits.

Despite these challenges, Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to see reason for hope. Although the Trump administration declared it would abandon its role as the “world’s police,” U.S. negotiating leverage still depends heavily on military strength. With the potential for intervention in countries such as Venezuela, global conflicts appear to be spreading rather than receding.

One factor in Russia’s favor is the growing division within Europe. Increased defense spending and support for Ukraine have already become a burden for major countries, including Germany and France. The United States has effectively halted military aid to Ukraine, leaving Europe closer to its limits than Russia. Meanwhile, Trump reportedly berates both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the conflict edges closer to a critical tipping point.

As cautiously predicted at the start of the war, most conflicts are eventually driven to the brink of catastrophe. Wars begin because rational compromise is initially impossible. Once bloodshed, death, and resentment accumulate, achieving a reasoned settlement becomes even more difficult. It remains uncertain whether the United States can create conditions for such a resolution. However, without strong U.S. intervention, a cease-fire is unlikely. Even if a truce is reached, as long as Putin remains in power, tensions and the arms race around Ukraine are likely to continue.