Israel and Iran edge toward all-out war

Israel’s surprise attack on Iranian territory and Iran’s subsequent retaliation have brought the two countries, separated by more than 1,000 kilometers, to the brink of full-scale war. On April 13, Israel launched airstrikes using around 200 fighter jets and drones hidden within Iranian territory to target Iran’s nuclear facilities, nuclear scientists, and military command centers. About 150 locations were hit, and senior military leaders, including the chief of staff, were killed. By the third day of the conflict, on April 15, Israel expanded its attacks to include energy infrastructure such as gas fields. In response, Iran launched around 200 missiles and dozens of drones to strike Israeli air bases and major cities, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Although Israel activated its Iron Dome missile defense system, several ballistic missiles evaded interception and caused damage in urban areas.

Israel’s preemptive strike came just ahead of the sixth round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran. The negotiations aim to exchange Iran’s suspension of nuclear development for the lifting of economic sanctions. However, Iran is suspected of enriching weapons-grade uranium in violation of the 2015 agreement with the U.S. Foreign media reports say Israel acted out of fear that Iran could develop nuclear weapons within six months.

In reality, Israel and Iran were already at war. In 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people. Israel blamed Iran for supporting Hamas behind the scenes. The 2024 assassination of the top commander of Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group based in Lebanon, was also part of Israel’s broader anti-Iran campaign.

If this conflict escalates into a full-blown war, it would mark the third major global conflict following the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 and the Israel-Hamas war in 2023. All three conflicts have broken out with the United States stepping back from its traditional role as the “world’s police.” On April 15, the U.S. drew a clear line by stating that it was not involved in Israel’s airstrike. This position stems from the “America First” foreign policy of President Donald Trump. Since declaring in 2010 that the U.S. cannot solve all the world’s problems alone, after the failures of the war on terror and the global financial crisis, the country has increasingly embraced a non-interventionist approach. In this era of American retrenchment, multiple simultaneous wars may become the new normal.

The Israel-Iran conflict is not just a distant war on the other side of the globe. It could destabilize global oil markets, drive up raw material prices, and increase inflationary pressures. If the United States is eventually compelled to provide limited military support, its allies may be asked to contribute weapons or other assistance. As the U.S. steps back from its role as global enforcer, growing instability in the international order will inevitably increase risks for countries including South Korea.