Constitutional Court's March schedule hints an imminent ruling

With the Constitutional Court approaching its ruling on the impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, speculation is growing that the decision on his removal from office will be made by mid-March. Since the final hearing on February 25, the court has not scheduled any additional proceedings until March 17, further fueling expectations of an imminent ruling. Justices are set to organize their key arguments individually over the March 1 holiday break and will officially begin deliberations on Tuesday. Considering past impeachment cases of former Presidents Roh Moo-hyun and Park Geun-hye, legal experts predict that Yoon's impeachment ruling is likely to be delivered on Friday, either March 7 or 14.

According to legal sources on Monday, the Constitutional Court has deliberated daily since concluding the hearings on Yoon's impeachment. Over the holiday break, Acting Chief Justice Moon Hyung-bae and the eight justices reviewed case records and organized key legal issues. Starting on Tuesday, they will reconvene to exchange opinions on the arguments presented by both the National Assembly and President Yoon's defense team. With the justices having already outlined their points of contention, the deliberation process is now expected to accelerate. These discussions are anticipated to take place daily, excluding weekends, until the ruling is finalized.

Both the National Assembly and President Yoon's legal team are making last-minute efforts before the final ruling is scheduled. The National Assembly's legal representatives have reportedly submitted additional reference materials to the court, including the final argument summary following the conclusion of the hearings and testimony from military officials who were recently questioned by the special investigation team regarding the December 3 emergency martial law issue. Yoon's defense team is also expected to submit additional written opinions summarizing key legal arguments.

Former President Roh Moo-hyun's impeachment ruling was delivered 14 days after his final hearing, while former President Park Geun-hye's ruling took 11 days. Given this precedent, many expect Yoon's ruling to follow a similar timeline, placing the decision around mid-March, which is about two weeks after the conclusion of the hearings. Since both previous rulings were announced on a Friday, legal analysts believe that Yoon's ruling will also likely be issued on Friday, March 7 or 14.

However, if Constitutional Court justice nominee Ma Eun-hyuk is appointed and joins the case, the ruling could be delayed until late March or early April. The new justice's participation would require reopening proceedings and undergoing procedural renewals, which could take approximately two weeks.

Another factor that could affect the timeline is the impeachment ruling of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo. The Constitutional Court concluded the hearings on Han's impeachment on February 19, prior to Yoon's case. If the court prioritizes drafting the ruling for Han first, Yoon's impeachment ruling could be pushed back. Additionally, if Han's impeachment is dismissed and he resumes his role as acting president, Yoon's defense team may challenge the validity of Justices Cho Han-chang and Chung Kye-seon, who were appointed by Acting President and Minister of Economy and Finance Choi Sang-mok, arguing that their appointments should be nullified.


Dong-Jun Heo hungry@donga.com