Experts Evaluate Korean-U.S. Issues

On February 15, it was analyzed that after the start of the Roh Moo-hyun government and among the diplomatic issues between Korea and the U.S., the progress of five issues pursued by the U.S., including the Korean troop dispatch to Iraq, was much greater than the progress of two issues pursued by Korea, including the transfer of wartime operational control.

When Dong-A Ilbo asked experts on the progress rate of five issues out of the 11 issues between Korea and U.S. that are led by the U.S., the results were: 79 percent on dispatching troops to Iraq, 76 percent on strategic flexibility, 62 percent on abolishing the Korean screen quota, 57.5 percent on financial sanctions against North Korea, and 55.5 percent on the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI).

Ten experts on Korea-U.S. relations set the progress rate of issues at zero percent at the time of President Roh’s inauguration and 100 percent upon reaching the final goal, and assessed the current progress rates of five issues led by the U.S.. The average rate was 66 percent.

Meanwhile, using the same method to measure the progress rate of issues desired by Korea, such as receiving wartime operational control and playing the balancer role in Northeast Asia, the results were 34 percent and 17.5 percent, respectively, with an average of a mere 25.8 percent.

Some experts that participated in the assessment pointed out, “Although in the end, the Korean government ends up accepting most of the U.S.’ demands, on the outside it makes provocative comments such as ‘we say what we want to say to the U.S.,’ creating unnecessary friction, which leads to unproductive negotiations.”

In particular, the majority of experts assessed that the Northeast Asia balancer role proposed by President Roh as a new framework for Korea’s Northeast Asia foreign policy was “virtually disposed.” In the case of wartime operational control, although Korea gained by receiving American approval in principle, it has been pointed out that accelerating the transfer when the gains to be made after the transfer is concluded are unclear, might be a problem.

Experts evaluated that four out of the 11 issues: negotiations on defense cost sharing, OPLAN 5029, the relocation of the Yongsan Garrison, and the start of FTA negotiations, which were pursued by both countries, the demands of both countries have been reflected 40 to 50 percent, a somewhat balanced ratio.

On these four issues, the demands of Korea and U.S. have been reflected 50 to 50 percent in defense budget sharing negotiations, 59 to 41 percent in OPLAN 5029, 51 to 49 percent in relocation of the Yongsan Garrison, and 41 to 59 percent in the start of Korea-U.S. FTA negotiations.

Myoung-Gun Lee Min-Hyuk Park gun43@donga.com mhpark@donga.com