Kim Jong Il May Be in China

A possible visit by North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to China via train on January 10 is proceeding under tight secrecy.

The only intelligence report regarding Kim’s visit came from a local source who said, “His train entered the Chinese border city of Dandong around 6:00 a.m. and Shenyang around 9:00 a.m. It is expected to arrive in Beijing around 6:00 to 7:00 p.m.”

The Chinese Government did not officially confirm Kim’s visit to China. It did not officially confirm his visit to China in April 2004, either.

When journalists asked whether Kim visited China in a regular press briefing on January 10, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Kong Quan said, “I have not been given a mandate to report to you.” It was not a denial. He added, “China and North Korea have maintained a tradition of senior-level visits.”

On January 10, when Rep. Jeong Mong-jun (independent), who is visiting China with National Assembly Speaker Kim Won-ki, mentioned “reports on Kim’s visit to China,” Jia Qinglin, the chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, said, “I know that some Korean and Japanese media outlets reported to that effect.”

Some Beijing diplomacy observers raised the possibility that Chairman Kim Jong Il and National Assembly Speaker Kim Won-ki might encounter each other in the Diaoyutai State Guest House.

According to sources, it is possible that the two will meet each other if Chairman Kim goes directly to Beijing, since Kim is now staying at the Diaoyutai guesthouse. Therefore, it is highly likely that the two might run into each other, even though no special meeting between them has been arranged.

However, other sources said, “China will not create such an awkward situation,” adding, “It is highly likely that Kim might arrive in Beijing on the morning of January 11, after visiting Shenyang in Liaoning Province or Dalian on January 10.”

The Associated Press was the first foreign press outlet to report Kim’s visit to China. However, a following report stated that the visit had not been confirmed.

The Associated Press quoted a Korean military intelligence official as saying that Kim was visiting China. However, in a following report, it said, “Contradictory reports are coming out, and the visit has not yet been officially confirmed.”

The German Press Agency (DPA) reported, “The course of Kim’s visit this time around is very similar to that of the visit back in April 2004 and is surrounded by circumstances similar to those from his 2004 visit, such as a special train from North Korea entering China.”

However, the DPA also reported, “It has yet to be confirmed whether Kim is on the train,” adding, “When Chairman Kim visited China in 2004, the Chinese government confirmed his visit by the time he returned to North Korea.”

Jong-Dae Ha Yoo-Seong Hwang orionha@donga.com yshwang@donga.com