Is the Super Flu Coming Again?

Is the ‘Super Flu’ that has taken tens, hundreds of lives going to reappear?

There are patients, who got influenza despite of the prevention vaccine, and the World Health Organization (WHO) is planning to make a guide that urge each country to make countermeasure for it warning the danger of appearance of the Super Flu next March; therefore, the worrying voice of the appearance of the Super Flu is rising.

The Super Flu is created because the flu virus gene initiates a big mutation and creates a mutated virus that is difficult to encounter with the human immune system or existing cure. Since the existing flu virus infiltrates to birds like chicken or duck and then transferred to human, it is also called the ‘Bird Virus.’

The Super Flu, which was generated in Spain 1918, Asia 1957, and Hong Kong 1968, is known to kill 25 million, one million, and 700,000 people. It was not prevailing much since 1968; therefore, there rises worry that the time for prevalence of the Super Flu is near.

The US health officials predicted, as a result of the analysis of the cases in 1957 and 1968 and recent trend, that if the Super Flu is prevailing, it will infect 18~42 million people, and 89,000 ~ 207,000 people will be dead because of it in America alone.

The National Institute of Health predicted that if the Super Flu prevails in the country, 4~12 million will be affected, and many people will be dead because of complication; but it sees the probability of prevalence in Korea is low.

Since 10% of the people who got vaccinated got flu in foreign countries also, so it is irrational to see the fact, which the vaccinated people got flu, or the flu is prevailing in Korea, as a prelude to the appearance of the Super Flu, and there is a little chance of prevalence in a particular country.

Sang-Keun Song songmoon@donga.com