America’s Korea Watchers Assess Developments on the Korean Peninsula

April 8, 2002

A recent survey of Korea watchers in the United States finds broad support for engaging North Korea and an almost equally strong disapproval of the Bush Administration’s approach to North Korea. Dong-a Ilbo, one of Korea’s largest daily newspapers with a circulation of approximately two million, conducted a survey of America’s Korea watchers from March 18 to March 29 on a full range of Korean issues. A total of 72 individuals from America’s leading universities, think thanks, the U.S. government, international financial institutions, and private sector participated in the survey. The survey is believed to be the largest of its kind ever conducted. The complete results of the survey follow this article.

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- Dong-a Ilbo Survey of America’s Korea Watchers

Two-thirds of the 24 questions focused on North-South Korean issues and the role of the United States on the Korean Peninsula. A dramatic 86.1% of respondents expressed support the Kim Administration’s Sunshine Policy toward North Korea. The most common reason cited was the belief that the Sunshine Policy is the most cost-effective and least risky way to deal with North Korea. Among the policy’s achievements, Sunshine has reduced tensions on the Peninsula and created the conditions which made the historic 2000 North-South Summit possible. Nevertheless, respondents expressed some areas of concern. The North’s failure to change its basic attitude toward South Korea was seen as the policy’s greatest short-coming, with the limited progress in implementing cooperation projects cited as the second most significant failing. More significantly, nearly six in ten respondents disapprove of South Korean government subsidies for the Kumgang-san tours because the tours are not economically viable and they do not contribute to broader exchanges between the two Koreas. Three-quarters of respondents believe Korea’s next president should continue to engage North Korea, but only 9.7 percent thought the current policy should continue to be pursued. Nearly two-thirds thought the next administration should make some policy adjustments. 20.8 percent felt that a new North Korea policy based on strict reciprocity should be introduced.

America’s Korea watchers were highly critical of the Bush Administration’s handling of North Korea policy. An overwhelming 72.2 percent of respondents disapprove of the Bush Administration’s policy toward North Korea. Slightly more than two-thirds object to the Bush Administration’s designation of North Korea as a charter member of the “Axis of Evil” for a variety of reasons, including that the designation undermines the consensus forged with South Korea in dealing with North Korea and will push North Korea away from talking to the South and the United States. Korea watchers also think that North Korea’s situation is different from Iran and Iraq’s. The 21.7 percent who approved of the designation thought that the Bush Administration had correctly identified the nature of the North Korean regime. Slightly more than two-thirds of respondents felt that the United States should continue to abide by the 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework. Slightly more than 20 percent thought the agreement should be re-negotiated. No respondent thought the United States should walk away from the agreement. The Bush Administration’s hard-line approach toward North Korea was cited as the biggest reason for the stall in North Korea’s relations with the United States and South Korea, but when asked what was the key to improving relations between the United States and North Korea, a slight plurality of 33 percent thought that above all else, North Korea should return to the negotiating table without preconditions.

On economic issues, Korea watchers were generally supportive of President Kim’s reform efforts, but also expressed some concern. A full 90.3 percent felt that significant economic reforms had been implemented, but an almost equally large number believe that much remains to be done. Macroeconomic stabilization was sited as the Kim Administration’s greatest achievement; labor and public sector reform received the lowest marks. The administration’s proactive stance toward foreign direct investment was also viewed as a significant achievement, but FDI levels would be even higher were it not for disagreements in asset valuations and the lack of transparency at many chaebol. A slight plurality (38.9 percent) thought that President Kim should focus on the Korean economy during the remainder of his term of office rather than improving North-South relations (11.1 percent). Similarly, one-third of respondents thought that the economy would be the biggest factor in the presidential election (along with personality politics) rather than the state of North-South relations (4.2 percent).

Finally, two-thirds of Korea watchers are concerned about the rise of anti-Americanism in South Korea, with the largest source of the rise (32.6 percent) attributed to the Bush Administration’s hard-line stance toward North Korea. 20.4 percent thought that U.S. trade pressure and protectionist policies were primarily to blame. An equal number pointed to the size and shape of America’s military footprint in Korea. The best way to remedy this situation is for Americans to have a better understanding of the situation on the Korean peninsula, according to a plurality (41.7 percent) of respondents.

Survey notes: Of the 72 respondents, 32 represented universities, 24 think tanks, 6 current/former U.S. government, 5 international financial institutions and 5 consultants/private sector. The respondents included Charles Armstrong, Ralph Cossa, Stephen Costello, Bruce Cumings, Robert Dujarric, Peter Hayes, Chalmers Johnson, Larry Niksch, Marcus Noland, Robert Rich, Scott Snyder, David Steinberg, Richard Walker, and Larry Wortzel. A number of participants did not want their names used in the survey. Figures do not always sum to 100 percent due to respondents who did not mark an answer or marked more than one answer. Questions asking for a ranked answer only show the results for the top-ranked choice.

***Director of Reserch and Academic Affairs, Korea Econmic Institute of America, lecturer, Georgetown University, columnist, Dong-a Ilbo.