Dialogue proposal hinges on North Korea

“We can begin a four-party dialogue involving South Korea, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the United States and China. Over time, the framework could be expanded to include other Northeast Asian countries, including Mongolia, Japan and Russia.”

Speaking at the Ulaanbaatar Dialogue on Northeast Asian Security in Mongolia on June 4, Unification Minister Chung Dong-young proposed launching a four-party dialogue involving the two Koreas, the United States and China. Citing the Sept. 19 Joint Statement adopted during the six-party talks in 2005, Chung said it was time to apply the lessons of that experience to today’s realities and reignite dialogue.

The key question is how North Korea can be brought back to the negotiating table. Pyongyang has rejected dialogue with Seoul since formally adopting its “two hostile states” doctrine in late 2023. A four-party dialogue would first require several conditions to fall into place, including the resumption of North Korea-U.S. talks, at least a minimal restoration of inter-Korean trust and active Chinese engagement similar to its role during the six-party talks.

Chung also suggested eventually broadening the framework to include Mongolia, Japan and Russia. Whether such a framework could work in practice is another question. The six-party talks were significant as the first formal mechanism for discussing denuclearization and a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula. In the end, however, they failed to prevent North Korea from declaring itself a nuclear weapons state and conducting nuclear tests. Although the two Koreas, the United States, China, Japan and Russia met six times between August 2003 and March 2007, the six countries brought fundamentally different interests to the table, a factor widely seen as contributing to the talks' failure.

In his speech, Chung also urged North Korea to rejoin the Greater Tumen Initiative, or GTI. “The success of this vision depends on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea rejoining the initiative, and it stands to benefit the most,” he said. The GTI is a multilateral framework established to promote economic development and regional cooperation in Northeast Asia. South Korea, China, Mongolia and Russia currently participate. North Korea, one of the founding members, withdrew in 2009 in protest of international sanctions. The initiative could provide a platform for future inter-Korean economic cooperation. Yet participation by other countries has remained limited, largely because the project is tied to China’s broader strategy for developing its northeastern region, and its achievements to date have been modest. A recent joint statement issued after a China-Russia summit referred to continued cooperation with North Korea on GTI-related projects, but it remains unclear whether Pyongyang is interested in reengaging.

Chung also proposed cooperation on Arctic shipping routes and a high-speed rail link connecting Seoul and Beijing. The rail proposal was first mentioned as a “creative initiative” in the Ministry of Unification’s policy briefing to the president last year. It was also reportedly discussed during a South Korea-China summit in January, when President Lee Jae-myung sought Beijing’s cooperation. Yet the project cannot move forward without North Korea’s participation, and significant obstacles remain, including international sanctions on Pyongyang.

Ultimately, all of Chung’s proposals depend on North Korea’s willingness to participate. Yet Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, who recently visited Pyongyang, said in a media interview that North Korea is not prepared to open meaningful channels of dialogue with the United States, South Korea or Japan. That is why Chung’s proposals sound detached from current realities.