Semiconductor boom could reshape South Korea’s industrial future

When business leaders gather at year’s end, conversations almost invariably turn to semiconductors, cutting across industries and generations. Many share the belief that 2026 could mark a historic turning point for South Korea’s industrial landscape, driven by the semiconductor sector. This optimism is grounded in more than sentiment. Both the market and the industry are closely watching two telling figures.

The first is 100 trillion won in operating profit. Japan’s Nomura Securities recently projected Samsung Electronics’ operating profit next year at 133 trillion won. Prices for Samsung’s core DRAM products have risen by about 40 percent since the start of this year, while production has struggled to keep pace with surging orders. Should this momentum continue into next year, the world’s top semiconductor maker is expected to reap the largest gains. SK hynix is also forecast to post comparable operating profits, propelled by its strength in high-bandwidth memory, or HBM.

For South Korean companies, reaching 100 trillion won in operating profit represents a symbolic and long-elusive milestone. To date, the highest annual operating profit recorded by a domestic firm remains Samsung Electronics’ 58.9 trillion won during the semiconductor supercycle of 2018. Even globally, only a select group of companies have crossed this threshold, including Saudi Aramco with its entrenched monopoly and Apple with its dominance in advanced technology sectors. If Samsung Electronics and SK hynix were to join this ranks, it would, in itself, open a new chapter in South Korea’s industrial history.

The second figure drawing attention is 1,000 trillion won in market capitalization. As of Dec. 30, Samsung Electronics’ market value had already surpassed 710 trillion won, supported by the semiconductor upturn and a weakening won. With the stock’s upward momentum accelerating, a growing number of investment reports since November have projected that Samsung’s market capitalization could exceed 1,000 trillion won as early as 2026.

Reaching a market capitalization of 1,000 trillion won is not simply a matter of one company’s performance. Such a valuation reflects broader confidence in a country’s capital markets and industrial foundation. If a manufacturer outside the United States, such as Samsung Electronics, were to achieve this level, it would signal a fundamental shift in the global perception of South Korea’s industrial capabilities.

Yet a closer look beyond semiconductors reveals mounting concerns. Batteries, once hailed as the next growth engine, are seeing contracts canceled amid shifts in U.S. green energy policy. Petrochemicals and steel continue to struggle under global oversupply, with restructuring paths still uncertain. These trends are fueling concern that South Korea’s industrial structure is becoming increasingly polarized, with semiconductor-led growth on one side and stagnation across other sectors.

For 2026 to become a true industrial turning point, the gains from semiconductors must extend beyond the chip sector itself. Semiconductor investment should feed into materials, parts, and equipment industries, creating a virtuous cycle that supports job creation and regional economic growth. This is why business leaders across industries are closely watching the semiconductor outlook for the coming year.

Taiwan has already demonstrated what such a cycle can look like. Major investment banks forecast Taiwan’s economic growth at around 5 percent this year. TSMC’s emergence as a winner in artificial intelligence semiconductors, with revenue rising more than 30 percent in a single year, helped lift the broader economy. South Korea will face a similar test next year. The challenge now is to ensure that the growth of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix becomes a catalyst for a broader industrial leap forward.