Experts doubt Kim-Trump meeting ahead of APEC Summit

With U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly planning a brief visit to South Korea, the likelihood of a surprise North Korea–U.S. meeting at Panmunjom during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Gyeongju appears to be diminishing.

A government official said on Oct. 3 that Trump’s tight schedule, coupled with North Korea’s firm stance against denuclearization talks, makes a summit-level dialogue unlikely at this time. The official noted that past precedents, such as the sudden Panmunjom meeting following the G20 summit in Japan in June 2019, leave a small window for a last-minute encounter. Trump’s tendency for sudden decisions means a dramatic meeting cannot be entirely ruled out.

Recently, Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un have exchanged statements hinting at the possibility of resuming talks ahead of the APEC summit. In a speech to the Supreme People’s Assembly on Sept. 21, Kim referred to “good memories” of Trump and said there was no reason not to meet. A White House official said on Sept. 30 that Trump was open to talks with Kim without preconditions.

Earlier, on Aug. 25, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung invited Trump to the APEC summit during a White House meeting and suggested a possible meeting with Kim. A diplomatic source said working-level communications between Washington and Pyongyang exist but are limited.

Analysts also suggest that Kim may be reluctant to miss an opportunity to showcase his international stature after attending China’s National Day celebrations by declining a meeting with Trump. As a result, the South Korean government is closely monitoring the situation, aware that Trump could propose a surprise meeting and that Kim might accept, as occurred in 2017.


Na-Ri Shin journari@donga.com