The waning authority of Iran’s revolution

When the war between Israel and Hamas broke out, many predicted Israel would be in trouble if Iran intervened. These forecasts stemmed from an overestimation of Iran’s military power. However, as Israel expanded its attacks to include Hezbollah, Iran's close ally, it became clear that Iran was a paper tiger. From the beginning of the Iran-Israel conflict, more accurate predictions emerged.

Accurate predictions lead to accurate judgments. This prompts the question: Were experts previously unaware of Iran's actual military capabilities? For Iran to intervene in Syria, it would have to deploy outdated F-14 fighter jets and attempt to counter Israel's cutting-edge F-35s in the skies. That scenario belonged more in a “Mission: Impossible” film than in military reality. In truth, numerous objective indicators had long pointed to the limits of Iran’s military strength.

Although the Iranian revolutionary government was not on the verge of collapse last year, its authority was already visibly weakening. This was evident during the 2022 anti-hijab protests. Like many revolutionary regimes throughout history, Iran responded to crises by becoming more rigid, clinging even more obsessively to ideological principles and rhetorical bravado. This explains Iran’s initially hardline stance when Israel launched strikes against Hezbollah, triggering direct confrontation between the two countries.

As the military imbalance between Iran and Israel became apparent, Iran likely grew more desperate to develop nuclear weapons. From the perspective of Iran’s revolutionary government, maintaining the revolution is virtually synonymous with achieving nuclear capability. Emulating North Korea’s example, Iran adopted a strategy of dragging out negotiations with the United States to buy time for its nuclear program.

Faced with unrelenting pressure from the U.S. and Israel, including U.S. President Donald Trump’s use of the term “unconditional surrender,” Iran’s leadership must demonstrate that it will never yield. Revolutionary ideologies often invoke powerful justifications and are ultimately constrained by them. History has repeatedly demonstrated this pattern.