U.S. weighs troop cut in South Korea strategy

A senior U.S. Department of Defense official said on May 29 that the United States is not ruling out reducing its troop presence in South Korea as it repositions forces in the Indo-Pacific to better counter China. The statement comes just a week after the Pentagon denied a Wall Street Journal report that the Trump administration was considering withdrawing 4,500 troops from the Korean Peninsula.

The official’s remarks appear to confirm that a reduction is under review as part of a broader plan to expand the strategic flexibility of U.S. forces in the region.

If carried out, a reduction in U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) would have wide-ranging implications. These include increased pressure on South Korea to shoulder a greater share of defense costs, potential changes to the U.S. extended deterrence commitment, and possible ripple effects in future U.S.-North Korea negotiations. South Korea’s next administration, to take office after the June 3 presidential election, is expected to face these challenges, which some officials refer to as “Trump’s invoice.”

● U.S. officials say posture must reflect China threat

According to an Associated Press report, two senior U.S. defense officials, speaking en route to the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, said the United States is considering various options as it reassesses military deployments in the Indo-Pacific. “Deterring China is our top priority,” one official said, emphasizing the need to modernize alliance structures to reflect current threats.

The U.S. is coordinating with South Korea to evaluate whether the current USFK posture remains appropriate. While no decision has been made, the official noted that force levels should serve not only to deter North Korea but also to counter China’s growing military influence. These considerations are expected to inform the National Defense Strategy to be released in August.

South Korean officials believe that the scope of any potential withdrawal may exceed the 4,500 troops mentioned in earlier reports. They are concerned that Washington’s broader review may include demands for increased financial contributions, a shift in nuclear deterrence responsibilities, and structural changes to joint defense arrangements. In this context, troop cuts may be only one part of a larger transformation.

Elbridge Colby, who is leading the development of the National Defense Strategy, has consistently argued that U.S. forces should be repositioned to better address the China challenge, and that allies must take on greater operational and financial responsibilities. Echoing that view, the defense official said the United States seeks to empower allies to assume more responsibility for their own defense.

● Concern over possible message to North Korea

The South Korean government says no formal discussions have taken place with the United States regarding troop reductions. However, some U.S. officials have conveyed informally that enhanced strategic flexibility is necessary. One South Korean official said formal talks may begin after political uncertainty surrounding the presidential election is resolved, adding that various ideas are currently being explored within the U.S. administration.

Analysts warn that any significant troop reduction could send an unintended signal to North Korea about weakening alliance ties. Some speculate the issue could even be used as leverage in future negotiations with Pyongyang. The Wall Street Journal has reported that the troop review may be part of an informal reassessment of U.S. policy toward North Korea.