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Russia may need a third strategy

Posted October. 11, 2022 07:38,   

Updated October. 11, 2022 07:38


Compared to triumphant Ukraine, the collapse of Russia’s military is spiraling out of control. Some forecasts that Ukraine will be able to recover most of its stolen territories around the coming winter. The Russian military faces such difficulties from its systemic limitations and the outdated authoritarian culture of the country itself. Perhaps during World War II, Russia might have overcome its weaknesses by leveraging other factors, such as the high volume of supplies and personnel. However, this war has exposed how the rigid culture and unchanged hierarchy of the Russian military can become a source of major weakness in this era of digitalization especially compared to that of the U.S. military.

Another major factor attributing to the loss comes from risky orders and excessive interferences from Putin himself. While it has not been confirmed yet, as no word is coming out of Kremlin, signs of such problems emerged when the war was in its mid-term stage; There was no consistency in war tactics, and the Russians were failing to carry out military operations 101 such as shifting the combat forces. The officials of Russian armies could not have been that unwise. The only thing that can explain such chaos in the military is excessive interference from their commander in chief, Putin, who seems to be repeating the mistakes of Stalin and Hitler in the German-Soviet War.

Russia says it mobilized 300,000 people, but it would take at least a year to train them as properly working forces who would be more than just human shields. One year of training is not even a guarantee. Maybe the final triumph from Ukraine will come anytime soon. Unless Russia uses a nuke, it will unlikely turn over the current situation. Even if it uses the final weapon of nuclear, no one can be sure what would be the end of it. The nuclear weapon wields the strongest power when it is still on a table in front of cameras and a microphone. Even when the horrible weapon is used and causes the most heinous and destructive outcomes, it will still not mean a victory for Russia.

Then, the last practical strategy Russian can employ to win this war is to go for a drawn-out war. It can choose attrition warfare by deploying its forces on the borderlines, bombing the cities of Ukraine, and dragging the war to endless times. This is the nastiest tactic a stronger nation can choose against a weaker counterpart. Perhaps the 300,000 mobilization and the threat of a nuke are leveraged before it chooses the protracted war. All in all, the only solution to end this war seems to be the collapse of Putin and his administration.