N. Korea can deploy tactical nukes within 3 years: U.S. think tank

A U.S. think tank has claimed that North Korea will deploy tactical nuclear weapons to active duty within three years and that the U.S. might not carry out nuclear retaliation even if the North launches a small-scale nuclear attack on South Korea.

The U.S. Center for a New American Security (CNAS), which has big influences on the Barack Obama administration, made the claim Friday in a review report on a conflict on the Korean Peninsula. The report, which the Dong-A Ilbo has exclusively obtained, was made after interviewing about 10 people, including U.S. and South Korean military generals, early this year.

The report said that South Korea believes the North will not use nuclear weapons against it and the U.S.`s "extended deterrence" will deter a North Korean nuclear attack. But the report said, Pyongyang might think that Washington will not carry out nuclear retaliation against a small-scale nuclear attack. The paper noted that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un`s "cryptic" New Year`s speech calling for develop nuclear warheads small enough to fit on a ballistic missile meant the development of tactical nuclear weapons.

In addition, the report stressed that Seoul and Washington should pay attention to the North`s possible deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to active duty within three years and come up with measures to deter their use in the event of war. The North`s attack on Seoul with asymmetrical means such as terrorism, chemical weapons or cyber attacks would cause extreme chaos and fear, forcing South Korea and the U.S. to make major concessions.

In a telephone interview with the Dong-A Ilbo on Thursday, Patrick Cronin, senior director of the CNAS`s Asia-Pacific Security Program who oversaw the report, raised concern that the Combined Counter-provocation Plan, which Seoul and Washington agreed in March 2013, could cause a massive escalation of a war on the Korean Peninsula. He said the plan, under which U.S. Forces Korea will automatically engage with North Korea, could cause Pyongyang`s asymmetrical counterattack.

While the U.S. is South Korea`s strong ally, it cannot protect Seoul under all scenarios, he said, adding that the U.S. is "going away" from the peninsula because of defense budget cuts.