China Could Top U.S. in Manufacturing Next Year

The Financial Times said yesterday that China next year could replace the United States as the world’s top manufacturer.

Global Insight, a U.S.-based economic analysis firm, predicted that the volume of Chinese made goods next year will account for 17 percent of global production, or 11.78 trillion dollars, edging the United States with around 16 percent.

Last year, U.S. manufactured goods accounted for 20 percent of the world total, exceeding China’s 13.2 percent.

The United States had been expected to maintain its top position through 2013, but the U.S. recession and China’s rapid growth could put China on top next year.

China led the world manufacturing industry for 1,800 years until the Industrial Revolution, the Financial Times said, and will regain its global lead in the industry.

Experts, however, disagree on the prediction. John Engler, president of the U.S. National Association of Manufacturers, said China’s overtaking of the United States is inevitable but positive effects will come from this, such as increasing U.S. opportunities to invest in China. Given China’s high inflation, the share of U.S. manufactured goods there could increase.

surreal@donga.com