China’s AI chip drive sparks DeepSeek moment talk

Forecasts are emerging that a “DeepSeek moment,” in which China stands shoulder to shoulder with the United States not only in artificial intelligence models but also in AI semiconductors, could arrive in the near future. Analysts say that if China enters the AI chip market now dominated by Nvidia, the impact could be substantial, comparable to the shock earlier this year when the Chinese startup DeepSeek unveiled a low-cost AI model with performance rivaling ChatGPT.

Matt Toms, head of Asia-Pacific equity trading at global investment bank Barclays, told Bloomberg on Dec. 22 that China is catching up with the United States very quickly in the semiconductor race. He said it would not be surprising if a DeepSeek moment arrived as early as next year, or by 2027 at the latest, when low-cost, competitive semiconductors are produced in China.

Chinese semiconductor companies have recently moved to raise capital through a series of initial public offerings as part of efforts to localize AI chip production. According to foreign media and the securities industry, Chinese graphics processing unit makers Moore Threads and MetaX Integrated Circuits Shanghai, known as MetaX, were listed on the Shanghai stock exchange on Dec. 5 and Dec. 17, respectively, and their share prices have surged. As of the latest trading session, both stocks were up about 500 percent from their offering prices. GPUs are essential for training and developing AI systems, and U.S.-based Nvidia currently controls about 90 percent of the global market.

China’s push for self-reliance in AI semiconductors is also evident in the government’s refusal to allow imports of Nvidia’s latest AI chip, the H200. The United States had previously restricted exports of Nvidia’s advanced AI chips to China, but recently allowed shipments to resume amid criticism that the curbs were accelerating China’s drive for semiconductor independence. Even so, Chinese authorities have yet to grant approval for imports, as Beijing continues to pursue domestic technological self-sufficiency.


박현익 beepark@donga.com