GNP Leadership Race Heats Up

The ruling Grand National Party will elect a chairperson and four members of the party`s decision-making Supreme Council at its national convention at Olympic Park in Seoul Thursday.

People in and around the party are watching closely for the results of the race given that the party is to elect its new leadership for the first time after its return to power in a decade. The new leadership will manage state affairs for a two-year term in line with Cheong Wa Dae and the government.

Change in party-Cheong Wa Dae relations

Forecasts of a new party-Cheong Wa Dae dynamic after the race are drawing keen interest as Park Hee-tae, who is backed by the majority pro-Lee Myung-bak members, has been closely followed by candidates Chung Mong-joon and Huh Tae-yeol.

With Park being considered the most likely candidate for the chairmanship, many predict that the party will enjoy more control at the presidential office.

Against this backdrop, if another pro-Lee legislator Gong Sung-jin joins the Supreme Council, pro-Lee members are likely to exert substantial clout within the party. Some say Hong Jun-pyo, the GNP floor leader, will have more of his say within the party as candidate Park is considered a party outsider.

On the other hand, if Chung Mong-joon or Huh – a representative figure who has close ties with former GNP Chairwoman Park Geun-hye, are elected, party-Cheong Wa Dae relations will see conflicts as well as cooperation. Chung is expected to try to strengthen his footing and image as a presidential candidate. And if Huh is elected, pro-Park lines are likely to gain more control in the party. However, some troubles with pro-Lee members in the process are inevitable.

Increasing factional rivalry

Although the GNP national convention started with a two-way competition between Park and Chung, Huh’s throwing his hat into the ring increased factional rivalry in the leadership competition. Considering the party regulations that allow delegates to vote for two candidates, most delegates are likely to vote for the same factional lines. In this sense, the one vote will play a crucial role in determining the winners.

Thus some candidates who receive factional supports have increasingly focused on winning backing from their sections. Park Hee-tae, in coalition with Gong, endeavors to win support from pro-Lee delegates, while Huh is making efforts to get backing from the pro-Park line. If the delegates vote for the same factional candidates with their voting rights, Chung, who enjoys less factional support, will be in a disadvantageous position.

Fierce vying for undecided voters

With the close battle for the party leadership growing fierce, spot addresses at the convention venue are attracting interest. An official from the Chung camp said, “Usually 10 to 15 percent of voters determine their votes after hearing spot addresses. For this reason, I have revised the manuscript five times.” Other candidates are also said to have made efforts to completely refine their final manuscripts.

Who will be the loser?

Chances are high that the race is narrowing down to a competition between Park and Huh, who receive strong factional backing, along with Chung, who has enjoyed high approval ratings from local delegates in recent polls. On this, since female candidate Park Sun-ja virtually won the ticket for the new leadership, Gong Sung-jin and Kim Sung-jo are fighting hard for the remaining post.

leon@donga.com