Lee Hoi-chang’s Defection and the Future of the Grand National Party

Former Grand National Party (GNP) leader Lee Hoi-chang will sever his ties with the GNP and announce his presidential bid today. South Koreans are holding their breath, waiting to see what will happen to the presidential race as a result.

According to a recent survey, Lee commands around a 20% approval rating. The November 3 Dong-A/Korea Research Center survey ranked Lee (20.3%) right after leader Lee Myung-bak (41.5%). In a November 5 JoongAng Daily survey, Lee (20.8%) was in second place following leading candidate Lee Myung-bak (38.5%).

Majority of Park Geun-hye Supporters Favor Lee Hoi-chang–

Various opinion polls indicate that former GNP leader Lee has successfully absorbed the support of more than 70% of those who supported Park Geun-hye during the GNP primary. In other words, Lee Hoi-chang’s conservative stance has attracted those who supported conservative Park. According to poll results, more than 10% of the swing voters in the primary now also support Lee Hoi-chang.

A recent Dong-A/Korea Research Center survey shows that Lee Myung-bak commands 54.6% of voters as long as Lee Hoi-chang remains out of the race, while 16.2% of respondents favor Chung Dong-young. In this scenario, 15.5% of voters identified themselves as undecided. When asked who to vote for with Lee Hoi-chang in the race, 41.5% of the respondents pointed to Lee Myung-bak, and 14.8% pointed to Chung. The number of undecided voters was reduced to 10.8%. The figures imply that most of approval rating for Lee Hoi-chang (20.3%) are from that for Lee Myung-bak (13.1%) and free-floating voters (4.7%).

Likewise, the JoongAng survey shows that Lee Myung-bak’s support falls from 49.9% to 38.5% with Lee Hoi-chang in the race. On November 5, Naeil Shinmoon, another Korean daily, conducted a similar poll that showed Lee Myung-bak losing 10.4% of his support to Lee Hoi-chang, or a drop from 48.9% to 38.5%. The daily also identifies the shifting group as those who supported Park during the primary.

82% of GNP supporters, according to the Dong-A survey, support Lee Myung-bak without Lee Hoi-chang in the race. Once Lee Hoi-chang runs, however, 25% of them are likely to change their candidate choice, leaving 60% to Lee Myung-bak.

During the primary, 25% of voters favored Park Geun-hye. After the primary, 70% former Park supporters leaned toward Lee Myung-bak, and the remaining 30% couldn’t decide whom to support. However, now that Lee Hoi-chang is on the move, the majority of the 70% has changed their favorite candidate to Lee Hoi-chang. Experts also believe the undetermined 30% are likely to vote for Lee Hoi-chang as well.

Key to Success: Park’ Endorsement–

All the surveys, however, presumed that Lee Hoi-chang would remain a GNP member. Thus, it is unclear whether the voters favorable to Lee Hoi-chang will really vote for him when he runs as an independent candidate. Korea Research Center senior analyst Kim Jeong-hye cautions, “We have talked about all the scenarios on the assumption that Lee [Hoi-chang] would remain a GNP member. Now, Lee has to run as an independent. It’s hard to say that Lee would command the current support level as an independent. Lee Hoi-chang has to win Park’s support first. Without her endorsement, Lee is unlikely to move up to the 30% level.”

The experts point out the issue of Chris Kim’s extradition, who faces criminal charges in Korea in a stock-price manipulation scandal that Lee Myung-bak was allegedly involved in as a potentially decisive factor in the upcoming election.

For now, Park is brushing away any possibility of a coalition with Lee Hoi-chang. But the continuing friction with Lee Myung-bak’s inner circle may turn Park’s supporters toward Lee Hoi-chang, warn experts.

sunshade@donga.com kimhs@donga.com