Organizations Calculate Statistics Differently: Study

Major economic statistics, such as the national debt and the tax revenue/GDP ratio have conflicting numbers between the organizations that produced them, according to a recent study.

Some statistical data have differences of up to trillions of won, which has caused concerns that the government’s statistical management system, the basis for various policies, has serious problems.

On March 6, the Dong-A Ilbo analyzed statistics from the Ministry of Finance and Economy (MOFE), Ministry of Planning and Budget (MPB), National Statistical Office (NSO), and “e-Nara Jipyo” (e-National Index), the government’s online statistics network. At least two institutions had different numbers for some of Korea’s major economic indices.

The MOFE and MPB produced very contradictory national debt numbers. The MOFE calculated that last year’s national debt amounted to 283.5 trillion won in the “Evaluation and Tasks for the Participatory Government’s Economic Management” study released last month, while the MPB announced on their website that the national debt was 279.6 trillion won, 3.9 trillion won less than the MOFE’s calculations.

Meanwhile, 2005’s national debt was 248 trillion won by the MOFE’s calculation, while the MPB stated it was 249 trillion won. The NSO does not produce this index.

The tax revenues-to-GDP ratio, a measurement affected by the government’s social welfare initiatives, is also different by organization.

The MPB and e-Nara Jipyo posted that in 2004, the tax revenue/GDP ratio was 19.5%, but the NSO wrote that it was 0.3% point higher, or 19.8%.

In 2005, the MPB and NSO announced a 19.7% result for the tax revenues/GDP ratio, but e-Nara Jipyo claimed it was 20.2%. Calculate the percentages into taxes in won collected that year, and the difference is approximately 4 trillion won.

Consolidated fiscal balance data, a measurement of the country’s general finances, also do not match.

E-Nara announced that the balance had a surplus of 5.1 trillion won in 2005, whereas the MPB, the ministry in charge of this index, stated that there was an 800 billion won surplus.

Experts explain that the reasons for these discrepancies are that each institution calculates its statistics at different times of the year, with different methodologies. It also said that basic information needed to compile the statistics was not shared properly between organizations.

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