Opinion Poll on Capital Relocation

A recent survey revealed that public opinion opposed to the capital relocation plan grew stronger than it was a month before.

The Hyundai Research Institute, a professional public opinion poll institute, executed the first survey regarding the capital relocation by polling 2,000 adults from July 3 to July 5 and executed the second by polling 745 traceable respondents among the first surveyed group from August 2 to August 5.

According to the results of the second survey, consent to the government’s capital relocation plan was found to be 36.7 percent and the opposition, 57.4 percent. The opposition in public opinion grew by 6.4 percent compared to 51.0 percent a month before.

The opposition in Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Inchoen, whose interests are affected by the capital relocation plan, increased from 60.7 percent to 69.7 percent, a rise of 9.0 percent. Meanwhile, consent on the issue decreased from 33.6 percent to 24.4 percent, dropping by 9.2 percent. The Daejon and Chungcheong areas experienced a 4.8-percent increase from 63.4 percent to 68.2 percent in people’s consent, and a 1.3-percent increase in the opposition from 28.2 percent to 29.5 percent.

Also, people’s opinion in the pros and cons is reflected by their supporting party.

Supporters of the Uri Party expressed more opposition, 52.1 percent, than consent, 37.7 percent, in the first survey. However, the percentage of those consenting rose, and the consent level of 68.1 percent was more than double the opposition of 27.0 percent in the second survey. For supporters of the Grand National Party, the consent percentage dropped from 36.1 percent to 15.9 percent, while the opposition percentage jumped up from 55.8 percent to 80.5 percent. Supporters of the Millennium Democratic Party showed a similar pattern to that of the GNP. Supporters of the Democratic Labor Party showed a similar pattern in both surveys, with the consent and the opposition percentages hovering around the 40-percent level.

By age, it caught our eye that people in their thirties turned from consent, with 48.3 percent, to the opposition in the majority, with 54.9 percent. Even people in their twenties turned to the opposition within the margin of error. The strongest opposition group in both of the surveys was people in their fifties. Among all the people surveyed, 72.1 percent of people in their fifties answered that they were “opposed” to the plan, which is a 10.1 percent increase from the first survey’s 62.0 percent opposition level.

The above results reveal that eventually, it is people in their thirties and fifties who reside in the metropolitan area and in the Youngnam area who are leading the opposition to the capital relocation plan in terms of public opinion.

In response to the question asked to the people in opposition why they disagreed with the capital relocation, the most popular answer was, “because of problems of fund-raising for the capital relocation,” taking up 40.6 percent, “cavitation in the metropolitan area and price drops in real estate,” 23.7 percent, and “lack of public opinion gathering measures such as the referendum,” 9.8 percent.

Regarding this point, people in the opposition answered that they are opposed due to problems of “fund-raising” (56.2 percent). However, people in the consensus think that the opposition side is disagreeing because of “cavitation in the metropolitan area and price drops in real estate” (45.7 percent), which revealed the contrasting views between the two sides.

Regarding whether or not the referendum for the capital relocation should be executed, 61.6 percent said that “it should be done,” and 33.6 percent said that “it does not need to be done” in the second survey.

Meanwhile, the evaluation of President Roh Moo-hyun’s management of the national administration came out with 22.9 percent saying that “he is doing well” and 64.7 percent saying that “he is not doing well,” a rise of 5.4 percent in the negative review.

The sampling error of the second survey is 95 percentage points, plus or minus 3.6 percent points from the confidence level.