North Korea Might Attack Across the Border Once Diplomacy Fails

On December 23, USA Today reported that North Korea might wage a full-scale strike across the border if diplomacy fails to solve its nuclear issue.

In an analysis on the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), realignment of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK), and the military forces of the two Koreas, the newspaper cited U.S. military officials saying that if North Korea attacks across the border, “The aim would be a decisive defeat of U.S. and South Korean forces in less than 30 days, before North Korea`s economic weakness hampers its military.”

The newspaper said, “Though there have been no significant changes since the nuclear crisis erupted 15 months ago, North Korea has more than doubled the number of troops deployed between its capital Pyongyang and the DMZ. Of its 1.2 million man military, 70 percent is stationed in that forward area.”

Commander of USFK, General Leon LaPorte, pointed out in an interview with the newspaper, “Over the past two years, North Korean forces have trained less often with fewer pieces of equipment than in previous years,” and added, “Much of Pyongyang`s armor and aircraft is obsolete, but the regime has been unable to modernize its aging conventional force.”

According to USA Today, the United States has already built new computer networks that would allow U.S. and Korean commanders to exchange classified emails and battle data when the combat becomes violent.

The newspaper reported that although the U.S.’ plan to realign USFK has left Korea’s defense analysts puzzling over the issue, “the reconfiguration will boost allied combat power,” according to General LaPorte.

maypole@donga.com